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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (44664)	1/14/2004 6:11:06 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

If the New Zealand / Russian case is really SARS, then the case fatality rate will probably rise very quickly. It would seem that he picked it up traveling, and the time between fever and death was quite brief and with all of the upcoming traveling in China, it would seem that one or two super spreaders could really do some damage.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (44664)	1/14/2004 6:29:43 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Dollar's Slide Doesn't Worry Greenspan Global Markets Can Handle Fluctuations, Fed Chairman Says in Berlin By Nell Henderson Washington Post Staff Writer Wednesday, January 14, 2004; Page E03 washingtonpost.com Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said yesterday that the global financial markets are able to handle the fallout from the slide in the value of the dollar over the past year. Greenspan, in a speech delivered in Berlin, acknowledged that European exporters "have been under considerable pressure" as the euro, the common currency of 12 countries, has soared in value while the U.S. dollar has fallen in recent months, making European goods more expensive on world markets. But he is "quite optimistic" that the fall in the dollar won't give way to a crisis because national economies have become more flexible, the Fed chairman said in response to a question after the speech, according to Bloomberg News. Greenspan described such flexibility in his speech as "the ability of an economy to absorb shocks, stabilize and recover," because interest rates, stock prices, product prices and currency exchange rates adjust to imbalances "well before they become potentially destabilizing." The Fed chairman's remarks came as European policymakers openly worried that the dollar's recent fall against the euro is threatening economic recovery on that continent, and as many economists express worry that growing, large imbalances in the U.S. economy -- the total trade deficit as well as the federal budget deficit -- could harm other economies over time. The International Monetary Fund warned last week that the twin deficits "pose significant risks for the rest of the world." Greenspan did not comment on the federal budget deficit, but assured his listeners that the recent rise in the total U.S. trade deficit, also called the current account deficit, although not sustainable indefinitely, has been financed "with little evidence of stress" to the global economy because of increasing financial flexibility. However, Greenspan repeated his earlier warnings that the global economy's flexibility to cope with the deficit is threatened by "creeping protectionism," and he called anew for a halt to trade restraints that could make it harder to reduce the deficit without harming the U.S. and world economy. The inflation-adjusted exchange rate for the dollar has dropped about 15 percent broadly and about 25 percent against the major foreign currencies since early 2002, Greenspan said. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said Monday that the ECB is concerned about "brutal" currency swings, and Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke said yesterday that the euro's rise could "put a brake" on Germany's economic rebound, Bloomberg reported. The dollar was little changed for the day at $1.275 per euro in late New York trading. Some economists have attributed the dollar's fall to the burgeoning current account deficit, a broad measure that includes trade in goods and services, earnings on foreign investments, and other flows of money in and out of the United States. The 2003 U.S. current account deficit is projected to be about $500 billion, a record, roughly 5 percent of the nation's total output, or gross domestic product. Many analysts worry that the continued growth in the current account deficit will eventually force interest rates higher, slow U.S. growth and spark rising inflation. Greenspan said that until now, the rise of the deficit compared with the size of the economy has been "with the exception of the dollar's exchange rate, seemingly uneventful," producing no jump in inflation or in inflation expectations as reflected in long-term interest rates. Yet, he warned, "I have little doubt that, should the rise in the deficit continue, at some point in the future further adjustments will be set in motion" that will eventually slow the growth of the deficit and reduce it. On another topic, Greenspan said in answer to a question that weak U.S. job creation in December was "not surprising" because the growth in productivity -- the amount of goods and services produced for each hour worked -- continues to be so high, Bloomberg reported. He said it's "just a matter of time" until job growth picks up.