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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (5027)	1/14/2004 10:11:07 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Exports Have Peaked morganstanley.com Asian exports peaked in this cycle in the fourth quarter of 2003, in my view, and will likely grow by half as much or less in 2004, about one-fourth below trend. The slower growth rate should allow raw materials industries to catch up in supply capacity and, hence, make further expansion affordable to low-income economies in Asia. We believe Asian exports could decelerate by 70% by end-2004. China probably frontloaded its exports in 4Q03 due to an expected reduction of VAT rebates in 2004, which we estimate exaggerated its export growth rate by one-tenth last year. The strong euro accounted for one-fourth of China’s export strength. Both one-time factors will disappear this year. Regional trade should decelerate sharply with China slowing its investment growth rate. When global trade slows down, its impact on commodity and equipment producers should be greater than in the past. Although markets are wildly optimistic about commodities, I am afraid that commodity prices could drop significantly in 2004. China’s central role in outsourcing-led globalization has basically increased the volatility in the cyclical commodity and equipment sectors, in my view. The current euphoria about these sectors, though justified by China’s secular story, is mostly cyclical, in my view. ====================================================================== Russ you buy this? Implications? Historicly I have not liked this guy's analysis. Sometimes his analysis is good but conclusions way off. Discussions appreciated. Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (5027)	1/14/2004 10:24:02 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

Euribor The 97.75 DEC Euribor was 16 points Picked up 15 calls for 16 BPs each. Since I expect 98 regardless of a rate cut or not it appears this one is a double regardless This is a huge bargain IMO. (though not as good as 1 month ago probably could have had it for 5 cents or something) I am fully loaded now and waiting. Back in wait mode for next breakout. This retrenchment in Eurodollars is probably healthy as long as it does not get too carried away. M

To: russwinter who wrote (5027)	1/14/2004 10:34:42 AM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Rising Health-Care Costs Create 'Competitive Gap' Ford, Auto Workers Seek Help From Washington for Problem By NORIHIKO SHIROUZU Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL DEARBORN, Mich. – A top United Auto Workers union leader and a Ford Motor Co. executive called on Washington to help ease a growing burden on the nation's manufacturers and other businesses in paying for employees and retirees' health-care costs. Ford Vice Chairman Allan Gilmour said at an auto industry conference here Tuesday night that health-care costs for U.S. businesses are rising at a rate of more than 10% a year. For the No. 2 auto maker, rising health-care costs have added $700 to the cost of each vehicle it sells in the U.S. -- a huge disadvantage in competing with Asian and European auto makers with plants in North America. Those foreign auto makers generally aren't saddled with high health-care costs because their work forces are younger and healthier, and they don't have as many retirees. Mr. Gilmour said steep health-care costs have "created a competitive gap that's driving investment decisions away from the U.S. If we cannot get our arms around this issue as a nation, our manufacturing base and many of our other businesses are in danger." Speaking at the same conference, UAW President Ron Gettelfinger stressed America's health-care crisis is a national problem that demands a "national solution." As before, Mr. Gettelfinger called for creation of a universal health-care program, noting that most other industrialized nations in the world have some type of universal health care. Ford's Mr. Gilmour said he has been asked by the company's chairman and chief executive, William Clay Ford Jr., to spearhead a national dialogue on the nation's rising health-care costs. He isn't lobbying for any particular universal health-care program but has been studying various universal health-care systems of different countries, focusing on their costs and various ways they save money, such as through rationing. Mr. Gilmour said America's health-care problem had no quick fixes at this point. It is "easily a 10-year issue," he said. While there is a possibility for Detroit's big-three auto makers to lobby together for a certain health-care system, the debate has a "long way ahead," he said.