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Politics : HOWARD DEAN -THE NEXT PRESIDENT? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill who wrote (1924)	1/14/2004 2:32:05 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3079

my post said polls don't adequately predict anger, and therefore are poor predictors for this election, and you reply with a POLL saying Bush will carry California. You're nuts Bill. Bush has no chance here- NONE. I think that sylvester00 guy is California, why don't you ask him how many friends he has who are registering for the first time just to dump Bush. There is no way to know the outcome until the elections but I am hoping the Bush people rely heavily on polls like this. Maybe the Bush campaign will spend a ton of money here and waste it.

To: Bill who wrote (1924)	1/14/2004 2:48:01 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3079

Bill, Interesting article re Bush's chances in California. I remain of the opinion that Bush will have a very difficult time winning California. But.... if the polls show that it is close, that is very significant even if Bush ultimately loses, because it may force the Democrats to run ads in California. The California TV markets are so large that running ads there can really drain even a well-funded campaign treasury. Here in Illinois, with Chicago being an expensive TV market for local ad buys, neither party ran much of anything at the Presidential level last time because the polls showed Gore comfortably ahead. This morning's Chicago Tribune shows Bush ahead of Dean in the latest poll, even though Bush is unpopular here with a 48 percent disapproval rating. If Dean (or some other Democratic nominee) has to pay money to run ads just to win California and Illinois, he will be in deep trouble nationally, with no money left to mount much of a campaign elsewhere.