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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (5103)	1/14/2004 6:41:50 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

now look at that first slump to 50 -- you wouldn't have been taken out with this indicator ...

To: yard_man who wrote (5103)	1/14/2004 6:58:53 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Finally a break in the complacency about junk and risk credit. Man, what took so long! Should be a bunch of bad credit out there. So we have some after the close tech trashing, and now this. Could this be the turn south? We need some good junk and emerging indexes to follow, anybody? Reuters Emerging debt-Prices dive on supply indigestion Wednesday January 14, 4:43 pm ET By Walter Brandimarte SAO PAULO, Brazil, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Emerging market bond prices plunged on Wednesday as investors rushed to take profits after gobbling up debt in a surprisingly strong rally in the early days of 2004. Prices had jumped on strong investor appetite for emerging market bonds despite nearly $7 billion in new issuance in only seven business days. Brazil, Latin America's largest economy, issued $1.5 billion in 30-year bonds on Monday, while Colombia issued $500 million in 20-year bonds a day later. "If I had to point to any single event, it could have been that the Colombia issue was perhaps the straw that broke the camel's back," said Siobhan Manning, New York-based Latin American debt strategist at Caboto. "I think the first big wave of supply is over and from here forward it will be much more opportunistic when they tap the market," she added. Total returns for emerging market debt dipped 0.43 percent in the afternoon, according to the JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index Plus (EMBI-Plus) (11EMJ), the industry benchmark. Brazil's portion of the index fell 0.56 percent, while the country's benchmark C Bonds (BRAZILC=RR) weakened 0.3 percent, to 100.250. In their lowest intraday level, the bonds were 0.7 percent lower, trading below par. Colombia's share of EMBI-Plus was almost flat, only 0.06 percent lower. Emerging market debt yielded returns of 2.8 percent in the first 13 days of the year, and analysts said some profit taking was healthy and desirable. "Latin America at large saw widespread profit taking, which can't be viewed as negative or worrisome, as the positive elements supporting the strength in emerging markets are still very much in place," Ricardo Amorim, head of Latin American research at IDEAglobal, wrote in a research note. Manning, from Caboto, believes the market will establish a new trade range in the coming months as investors aim to reap returns from daily volatility.