Kerry Inches Ahead by Nose in 4-Man Race - Where's AS?
Thursday, January 15, 2004
By Liza Porteus
DES MOINES, Iowa — The race for the Democratic presidential nomination remains in a statistical dead heat in the vital Iowa caucuses but it has a surprise twist -- Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (search) has taken the lead, according to the latest tracking poll, released Thursday.
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (search) has enjoyed a wide lead up until recently but polls leading up to Monday night's caucuses and the Jan. 27 New Hampshire primary show Dean slipping.
The poll that shows Kerry with a slight advantage also indicates that it's really a tight four-man race to win the caucus with Rep. Richard Gephardt (search) of Missouri and Sen. John Edwards (search) of North Carolina in the mix.
"They're all competitive, they're all pouring it on in the end game. It's a very close race," Des Moines Register political columnist David Yepsen told Fox News. Dean's "not getting a free ride anymore."
Meanwhile, former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley Braun (search) -- the only woman in the nine-person nomination battle -- is expected to drop out of the race Thursday and endorse Dean.
But Braun's endorsement -- she was never expected to win the nomination, a fact her own campaign acknowledged -- is expected to do little for Dean's campaign.
"In Iowa and New Hampshire, if you're calculating that Carol Moseley Braun's support is coming from African-American Democrats, they're aren't a lot of those to be had in those two states," said David Corn, a Fox News political analyst and the Washington editor of The Nation. "I think a politician will say every endorsement helps but none helps a great deal."
In other campaign news, politics is taking a dirty turn as the candidates head in to the final four days of recruiting votes for Monday's big event.
Gephardt, for example, has suggested that Dean is a fake and Dean has accusing retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark (search) of being a closet Republican. Dean has also made statements such as: "Let's not kid ourselves about this, these guys are looking at the end of their careers if I win and they're going to do anything they can to stop me."
But all the catfighting may be taking its toll.
Iowa Democrats "don't like all this sniping among Democrats and … they desperately want to beat George Bush in November," said Bruce Reed, president of the Democratic Leadership Conference.
"One thing candidates are definitely learning from this experience, is voters seem much more interested in the positive, in what you're going to do rather than how angry you are and what you've been against."
Pointing out that Dean is losing support in polls, Reed said, "I think Dean's paying a price everywhere for a pretty negative campaign."
Neck and Neck
In the latest Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll, Kerry had edged the doctor-turned-politician and Gephardt for a slight lead in Iowa caucus polling, despite endorsements for Dean from former Vice President Al Gore and former presidential hopeful Bill Bradley.
After trailing Dean by as much as 11 points earlier in the week, Kerry now has 22 percent of the vote -- a single-point lead over the previous front-runner, who is tied with Gephardt. Edwards makes it a four-man race with 17 percent. All other possible contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination have 3 points or less in Iowa.
Meanwhile, the latest New Hampshire poll of 622 likely voters shows Dean continuing on his downturn, garnering 29 percent of the Democratic vote. The poll, conducted by American Research Group from Jan. 12-14, shows Clark steadily catching up with 24 percent of the vote, Kerry with 15 percent and all others in single digits. Fifteen percent were undecided.
What's telling is that Clark has been steadily gaining on Dean -- with Dean losing steam -- throughout the week in this poll and the career military officer has been picking up more support from women over 45.
And while an ARG pollster cautioned to not oversell Dean's drop and Clark's gain, he said that based on recent polls, Kerry's rise is definitely the story of the day.
"I believe that John would make a great, great president and certainly would make a strong enough opposition to the president in November," said Rep. Bill Pascrell, D-N.J.
Voters like him and support his stances, even though "he's not the most exciting, glamorous television personality in the world … and he's a true American hero," Pascrell added.
Kerry, a decorated Vietnam veteran and four-term senator, continues to emphasize his experience over Dean's.
"I am asking you to measure candidates not by what we say, not by the positions they adopt for the convenient purposes of the campaign, some of which change month to month in the course of the campaign," Kerry said at a recent event.
Stress on the Dean Camp
Dean was flying high after receiving Gore's endorsement. But after Dean's comments suggesting that the United States is not a safer place after the capture of former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and that Americans should not pre-judge terror leader Usama bin Laden, other candidates began to move up. Then there are the criticisms his rivals have been piling on.
"I think it's taking a toll," said Elaine Kamarck, former senior campaign adviser to Gore.
Even if Dean loses Iowa, "he is truly a national candidate -- he will go all the way," she said. "Whereas the other candidates "really have to emerge in Iowa, otherwise they will fall back."
Iowa is the first test of whether Dean can "expand the electorate" and bring in more supporters.
Dean has acknowledged a "tight" race and his haggard campaign aides are scrambling, setting new standards for Internet fundraising, Meetups, and political Web blogging. But Iowa is an old-fashioned organizational ground war -- not a high-tech hotbed for politics.
Dean is trying to maintain his front-runner status and will conduct a five-day bus tour across Iowa. Two of his Hollywood supporters -- actor Martin Sheen and director Rob Reiner -- are in Iowa to help Dean make his final push toward caucus night. Dean is telling his supporters to expect this week to be a tough one.
But in addition to volunteers driving, busing and flying in from all over the country, Dean's camp is expecting 3,500 or more people to show up for Monday's caucuses. Labor unions like the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (search) and the Service Employees International Union (search) are mobilizing.
But Gephardt also has an excellent organization and his support has been steady. Kerry's organization isn't as good but he seems to be picking up undecided voters.
Polls indicate Edwards, who has avoided sniping and emphasized a "positive campaign," is the second choice of the vast majority of likely caucus goers.
Fox News' Carl Cameron, Kelly Wright and The Associated Press contributed to this report. |
