Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (5151)	1/15/2004 3:05:07 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

U.S. Dec budget deficit $16.2 bln vs $4.7 bln surplus The U.S. government recorded a federal budget deficit of $16.2 billion in December, compared with a $4.7 billion surplus a year ago, the Treasury Department said Thursday. The Congressional Budget Office had estimated a shortfall of $13 billion earlier this month. Outlays rose 14.0 percent from a year ago, while receipts rose 2.2 percent from a year ago. ======================================================================== Party on Dudes Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (5151)	1/15/2004 3:44:41 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

unleaded gas was up two cents this am now down 6 cents. That is a huge swing. Of all the insane dip buys in the naz this has to be the most insane. Poor numbers from INTC bad capex numbers and we rally. lumber going up and down lock limit every other day. If you can tell me WTF is going on please do so. BTW I want unleaded gas on a pullback (calls only) those kind of swings on futures would drive me nuts. Any thoughts on unleaded gas, crude, or any other damn thing? Treasuries stable all day. New high for this move. Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (5151)	1/15/2004 4:19:49 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

3:11pm 01/15/04 Benchmark Treasurys end higher on low-inflation view ($TNX) By Rachel Koning CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Longer-maturity Treasurys ended higher and their yields fell Thursday, helped by renewed expectations for mild inflation. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note ended up 6/32 at 102 7/32. Its yield fell to a 3 1/2-month low 3.97 percent vs. 3.99 percent at Wednesday's close. 10:46am 01/15/04 U.S. mortgage rates tumble in latest week (FRE) By Steve Kerch CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- U.S. mortgage rates fell sharply in the week ending Thursday, responding to a decline in bond rates in the last few days. Freddie Mac (FRE) said Thursday that the national average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage dropped to 5.66 percent from 5.87 percent a week earlier. The rate on the 15-year loan, a popular refinancing choice, slid below 5 percent at 4.97 percent. One-year, Treasury-indexed, adjustable-rate mortgages also fell, averaging 3.62 percent versus 3.76 percent a week ago. 3:18pm 01/15/04 Natural-gas futures fall 8.5%, lead energy prices lower By Myra P. Saefong SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- An 8.5 percent drop in February natural gas to a six-week closing low of $5.845 per million British thermal units led energy futures broadly lower on the New York Mercantile Exchange. February crude fell $1.06, or 3.1 percent, to close at $33.44 per barrel, after climbing earlier to a high of $35.21. February heating oil fell 3.9 percent to close at 92.99 cents a gallon, and February unleaded gasoline closed at 93.29 cents a gallon, down 5.9 percent. Crude futures fall under $34 a barrel By Myra P. Saefong SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Crude futures have fallen to a one-week low under $34 per barrel from a mid-March high above $35 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, with 15 minutes still left in the session. John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services said there's a nearly $4 premium built into crude prices and traders expect milder weather in much of the U.S. next week to give the market a chance to rebuild its crude supplies. February crude is at $33.58, down 92 cents. February natural gas is still sharply lower, down 7.9 percent at $5.885 per million British thermal units.

To: russwinter who wrote (5151)	1/15/2004 4:41:10 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

Treasuries Reach a Junction That Could Impact Other Markets Brian Reynolds After being away for a few days, we return to find Treasury bond yields at the low end of their range of the last three months. We noted last month how it seemed that everyone, from bond managers to equity investors hated Treasuries and had positioned themselves accordingly, except for the fixed income hedge funds that unemotionally put on the carry trade whenever the opportunity presented itself. Our last note on Friday indicated that trading felt unusual in the afternoon following the soft payroll report: Instead of a small intra-day selloff that would be expected once the bond-stock relationship had been stretched, Treasury prices marched on to new intra-day highs. We noted that this was likely to be the product of short-covering of Treasuries, and our contacts indicate that there has been a lot of pain from Treasury shorts. This price action brings us to an interesting juncture. Yields have fallen enough during the past few days so that the carry trade is less appealing than it was last week; we may be near the point where traders take that trade off. Additionally, from a pure chart basis, yields on the 10-year Treasury should find technical support in the 3.93% area, which is the low yield for the September/October period. These factors argue for at least a technical bounce up in yields. However, we've written in the past that there is a segment of the bond universe for whom technicals mean nothing: mortgage investors. After a significant move in Treasuries (up or down) mortgage investors often add fuel to the fire. That is because, when yields fall, prepayments on mortgages increase because of increased refinancing activity. Those higher prepayments shorten the effective maturity of a mortgage portfolio, so mortgage managers have to buy long maturity Treasuries (or their equivalent in the swap market) to offset that shortening and maintain parity with their benchmarks, even though Treasury prices have already risen. The process works in reverse when yields rise: slower refi activity lengthens a mortgage portfolio's effective maturity, and mortgage managers sell Treasuries into a declining market. We've written how the decline in bond yields of the last few years has compressed the range of outstanding mortgage rates. As more and more people have refinanced, the bond market as been acting like an on/off switch for refinancing: we have been seeing relatively large swings in refi activity for relatively small moves in bond yields. Refis peaked in May near the 9900 level, then fell to the 2000 area in recent months. Despite this drop, refi activity is still historically high: the 2000 level had only been exceeded 4 brief times before the refi boom of 2002. Yesterday, it was announced that refis rose to 2196 from the 1700 level that this series had dipped to over Christmas and New Year's. Yesterday's release was based on activity that occurred before the payroll-induced drop in bond yields. If current yield levels hold, we would expect refis to rise to the 2500-3000 area in the next few weeks. Another 15-25 basis point drop in yields could push refi activity toward the 4000 level. Impact on Equities? So, we're at the point where a few soft economic numbers, a correction in stock prices, or covering by any remaining die-hard bond shorts could produce another surge in refis. That would then have the potential to impact other markets. We've written that, in this environment, equity investors should be more concerned over lower, not higher, Treasury yields if those lower yields are accompanied by a significant widening in corporate spreads as we saw time and again in 2002. What could cause such a widening in corporates is if worries over losses from mortgage hedging lead to wider spreads on government agency bonds relative to Treasuries. If those spreads in turn then negatively impact corporate spreads at a time of strong seasonal bond issuance it would then be a negative for equity markets. At this time, this is just a concern, and not a reason for panic. The odds are that this will be just another speed bump in the road, like other potential warning signs have been over the last year. The volatility of Treasuries last spring and summer did not have a major impact on stocks because corporate spreads were still wide enough that the volatility in Treasury yields and agency spreads subsided before corporates were impacted. But, with equities remaining in overbought territory, and with corporate spreads significantly narrower than they were then, it is a scenario to keep an eye on for signs of trouble.

To: russwinter who wrote (5151)	1/15/2004 5:23:16 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Philly Fed From Brian Reynolds Strong headline, soft under the surface The Philadelphia Fed index rose from 30.3 (revised from 32.1) to 38.8 in January, putting it well ahead of the Bloomberg consensus which was looking for a 30.0 read. This number comes after another positive surprise in this morning's Empire State index, and is the highest reading since December 1993, and the second highest since January 1984. Under the surface, though, this number is not as robust as the headline would imply. Prices paid rose from 30.9 to 35.3. New Orders declined from 37.9 to 36.5. Shipments fell from 39.6 to 33.1, while employment fell from 19.4 to 17.5. So the picture from this report is of a strong, but moderating economy. The 10-year Treasury, which was up an eighth of a point in front of the number (and which was flirting with 3-month lows in yield) lost those gains on the release of the headline, but then stopped falling when traders got a look at the detail.

To: russwinter who wrote (5151)	1/15/2004 6:16:54 PM
From: ldo79	Respond to of 110194

Does a 20% pop in steel prices count? ===================================== Reuters UPDATE - AK Steel raises prices, adds surcharge on steel Thursday January 15, 3:02 pm ET NEW YORK, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Steelmaker AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE:AKS - News) on Thursday said it increased prices for hot-rolled, cold-rolled and coated steel, and added a $30 per ton surcharge to several of its products due to extraordinary increases in raw material costs. The company said it notified customers last week that it raised prices for hot-rolled steel by $50 per ton. Prices for cold-rolled and coated steel were increased by $60 per ton. AK Steel's moves follow several other price increases and surcharges put in place by U.S. steelmakers, including United States Steel (NYSE:X - News) and Nucor (NYSE:NUE - News), due to strong demand and surging raw material costs. Middletown, Ohio-based AK Steel said the surcharges would be adjusted monthly, based on changes in raw material costs. Shares of AK Steel rose 26 cents, or 5.78 percent, to $4.76 in afternoon trading on the New York Stock Exchange (News - Websites) . biz.yahoo.com Regards, ldo79

To: russwinter who wrote (5151)	1/15/2004 6:19:29 PM
From: ldo79	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

How 'bout stainless steel? ========================= January 14, 2004 04:36 PM US Eastern Timezone ATI Allegheny Ludlum Announces Price Increase for Stainless Steel Products PITTSBURGH--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 14, 2004--Allegheny Technologies Incorporated (NYSE:ATI) announced that ATI Allegheny Ludlum plans to increase prices on many of its stainless steel products by approximately 6%, effective with shipments on January 26, 2004. In addition, ATI Allegheny Ludlum is revising its bill of material policy, requiring a minimum quantity of 250 tons per month among other changes. This price increase covers stainless steel sheet, strip, Precision Rolled Strip(R) and plate products. The existing raw materials surcharge formulas remain in effect. These increases are necessary to offset the rapid inflation of raw materials, energy, transportation and other costs. For more information, see www.alleghenyludlum.com. This news release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainties and changes in circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements is contained in Allegheny Technologies' filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We assume no duty to update our forward-looking statements. Allegheny Technologies Incorporated is one of the largest and most diversified specialty materials producers in the world, with revenues of approximately $1.9 billion in 2002. The Company has nearly 8,800 employees worldwide and its talented people use innovative technologies to offer growing global markets a wide range of specialty materials. High-value products include nickel-based and cobalt-based alloys and superalloys, titanium and titanium alloys, specialty steels, super stainless steel, exotic alloys, which include zirconium, hafnium and niobium, tungsten materials, and highly engineered strip and Precision Rolled Strip(R) products. In addition, we provide commodity specialty materials such as stainless steel sheet and plate, silicon and tool steels, and forgings and castings. The Allegheny Technologies website can be found at www.alleghenytechnologies.com. Regards, ldo79

To: russwinter who wrote (5151)	1/15/2004 6:21:35 PM
From: ldo79	Respond to of 110194

Coating resins maybe? =========================== Reichhold Announces General Price Increase for all Coating Resins Sold in U.S. and Canada; $.04 -$.06 per Pound for Epoxy Resins, $ .03 per Pound on All Other Chemistries; Effective February 9 RESEARCH TRIANGLE PARK, N.C.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jan. 12, 2004--Reichhold announced an off-list price increase today of $.03 per pound on all solvent-based coating resins and emulsions. Additionally, an increase $.06 per pound will be applied to liquid and solid epoxy resins while epoxy solutions and blends will increase by $.04 per pound. These increases are effective for all U.S. and Canadian orders shipped on or after February 9, 2004. This price increase is a direct and necessary response to the continued escalation in pricing for key raw materials such as MMA, VAM, mineral spirits, and soybean oil (which has now reached a seven-year high). Another contributing factor is the significant increase in energy expenses Reichhold has incurred as a result of rising crude oil and natural gas costs. Regards, ldo79

To: russwinter who wrote (5151)	1/15/2004 6:26:28 PM
From: ldo79	Respond to of 110194

And then there's always: ======================== Ticket prices for select sporting events increase after three years By Abby Gustus Campus Editor Ticket prices for select sports and seating will soon increase. The Purdue University Board of Trustees voted Dec. 20, 2003 to adjust football ticket prices for 2004, increase single-game tickets for women’s basketball and increase single-game and season tickets for volleyball. The adjustments made to the prices are very small. Changes in football ticket prices include a public season ticket increase from $192 to $198, student season ticket increase from $72 to $78, faculty and staff season ticket increase from $154 to $158. Regards, ldo79

To: russwinter who wrote (5151)	1/15/2004 6:28:46 PM
From: ldo79	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

RW - This is too easy: ====================== Price Going Up To Ride Incline Railway posted January 15, 2004 The price is going up to ride the Incline Railway. CARTA officials said a public hearing will be held Tuesday, Jan. 27, at 4 p.m. at CARTA offices on Wilcox Boulevard on the change. The roundtrip charge goes from $9 to $10 and one way from $8 to $9 for adults. For children, the increase is from $4.50 to $5 for roundtrip and $3.50 to $4 for one way. The group rate for adults goes from $7.20 to $8 for adults for roundtrip and $6.40 to $7.20 for one way. For children the group rate goes from $3.60 to $4 for roundtrip and from $2.80 to $3.60 for one way. Regards, ldo79