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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ish who wrote (24554)	1/15/2004 5:01:51 PM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793669

gets arrested for having a handgun We get so much of this type of behavior by the Government that I don't bother to post it when I read it. Just read about a 71 year old wheelchair bound Business Owner in Holland who shot at some robbers. He was arrested and charged with murder when one of them was hit and died.

To: Ish who wrote (24554)	1/15/2004 5:21:01 PM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 793669

Yepsen: Look back, Dean, they're gaining on you By DAVID YEPSEN Register Political Columnist 01/15/2004 HORSE-RACE JOURNAL- ISM: When the last stories of the 2004 Iowa Democratic caucuses are written, the decisions by Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt to be absent from the state for part of this final week of the campaign may loom large. The latest tracking poll of the race shows John Kerry has caught up with them - with John Edwards in hot pursuit. The Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby poll released Wednesday shows Dean with 24 percent, a drop of 4 points, and Gephardt and Kerry with 21 percent apiece. Gephardt has dropped 2 and Kerry has jumped 4 points. Edwards picked up 1 point for a total of 15 percent. There are 13 percent of the likely caucus-goers who are undecided and the rest are scattered in the poll that has a margin of error of 4.5 points. Pollster John Zogby said in a press release, "This is officially a three-way race. Kerry is surging and he actually led the pack on Monday with 25 percent for the day. Dean had his worst single day with only 18 percent." Dean leads in western Iowa, Gephardt is slipping there but still leads in central Iowa. Dean, Gephardt and Kerry are tied in eastern Iowa, where most of the Democrats live, Zogby said. "Kerry now leads among liberals, while moderates belong to Gephardt," he said. "The three candidates are bunched together among Democrats. Dean still leads among voters under 50, and Gephardt dominated with voters over age 65. It's a three-way race for 50- to 64-year-olds. Kerry is challenging Dean for college-educated voters and challenging Gephardt for union votes. The three are tied among men and the top four are tied among women." So, as Dean slips, Kerry benefits. As Gephardt slips, Edwards profits. (Caveat: The svengalis at ABC News and some major papers don't like Zogby's tracking. One ABC guru calls this poll "crack for the weak." Perhaps. But, since it's the only crack on the street right now, political junkies - like the people who have read this far - have come to at least enjoy a small toke. It does square with the gut feelings Iowa insiders and local politicians have about the contest.) Also this week, Dean started ads attacking his three leading opponents for voting for the Iraq war. That tells you Dean's own internal tracking poll shows this race has tightened, so he's going back to the issue that made him the early front-runner - the Iraq war. Trouble is, polls also tell us that Iraq isn't the most important issue on the minds of most caucus-goers. Issues such as jobs, trade, health care and education are more important, and the other candidates have plenty of credibility on those questions. Finally, despite all the talk about how liberal caucus-goers are, it's also true that the winners generally come from the center of that cycle's political spectrum. For example, in 1976, Jimmy Carter defeated people on his left. In 1984, Walter Mondale beat candidates more liberal than he. Electability is also an important matter for many undecideds. Dean's dovish war views can trouble some, as do his inconsistencies and glib talk. They wonder if someone as liberal as Dean on the war and gay civil unions can win. Dean says he can because he isn't all that liberal - the NRA loved him as governor - and he can bring new people into the electorate and beat Bush with those folks. Perhaps, but it's an untested proposition, and some may not be willing to gamble their party's 2004 election prospect on the theory. Others feel Gephardt has had his chance. These sentiments give hope to Kerry and Edwards. Undecided Democrats are starting to make up their minds, and more are moving to the non-Dean, non-Gephardt candidates in the race. Dean and Gephardt are well-known quantities in the state, and the fact that each is flat or slipping is a sign a lot of Democrats have had some sort of problem with them and are looking elsewhere. Some like Kerry's long experience, particularly on foreign affairs at a time like this. Others find Edwards a fresh face - and a guy who just might be able to carry a state or two in the South. (History teaches that Democrats usually don't win the White House unless there is a Southerner somewhere on their ticket. Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Harry Truman's pick of Kentucky's Alben Barkley in 1948 come to mind.) The only upside to Dean's and Gephardt's journeys outside Iowa is that it gave their organizations in the state time to harvest votes rather than advancing events and moving a candidate around. Since Gephardt's organization is the best while Dean's is the largest, each man probably figured he could play hookey from Iowa for a day or two. But given how tight this is, Dean and Gephardt may someday wish they'd have spent more time in places like Burlington, Ia., instead of Burlington, Vt., this week. That will become clear to them on caucus night, when only a few thousand votes are likely to separate the first-, second- and third-place finishers. It's one of those things a loser can kick himself over for the rest of his life.