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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dolfan who wrote (21462)	1/16/2004 2:31:42 PM
From: David Hansen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

I think if someone was going to acquire Lucent it would have been done when the stock was around $.50. Same for Nortel. Increasingly, companies are going to be punished for their debt load moreso than in the past. That is what limits the future of LU's stock price, imho. It is going to take some time for LU to eliminate $5.5 BB of long term debt. What allows the upside we are seeing now is that none of this is due soon and the terms of this debt is getting more favorable. But this refinancing is also diluting share holder value... If you take the market caps combined with debt it makes no sense whatsoever to think about acquisition... The trick for the near term is to find the point where this stock starts to trade sideways... Is it at today's $4.70? $5? $6? $7? NT is nearing $7 a share... that should be some indication. NT is enjoying better margins but LU isn't far behind in their improvements. I believe if both NT and LU had similar margins, their stock price would also be similar... Anyone have a good exit strategy for their LU position?