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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (5195)	1/16/2004 7:35:43 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

S&P revises Radian Group Inc outlook to negative I shorted RDN, MTG, and PMI the other day. too bad I didn't put all my eggs in the RDN basket <g>

To: ild who wrote (5195)	1/16/2004 8:23:03 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 110194

Radian obviously has not heard of the term trailer trash. <gggg> By the way, that was a really good set of slides you posted by C.A.R.

To: ild who wrote (5195)	1/16/2004 8:56:03 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

<S&P revises Radian Group Inc outlook to negative> Negative downgrades in these daisy chain companies is not an insignificant event. RDN and other credit insurers are very dependent on those bogus AAA and AA ratings, as are the creditors who use them. It sort of makes all the junk they insure somehow "OK". So this in turn should impact virtually all the securitized, and other loans/debt that RDN insures. I simply can't imagine that this is not very negative for RDN's business. I find it astonishing that it's only down three bucks on this, and that the other big insurers actually traded higher on this. Clearly the market assumes these problems are "isolated to RDN and a few low income trailer courts in rural America". Bogus again. Of course, the classic will be some idiot buying the dip and taking it up a buck twenty five today, in the strange Orwellian distorted market we are in. I should ask both you and Ramsey which of this insurer crowd looks the most vulnerable (bogus) right now? Any stand out? I picture all this as a house of cards, if one card pops loose they could all tumble. Of course the market is so aggressive on risk right now, that someone else (with over rated credit quality as well) might just absorb any questionable member of the daisy chain. That's probably how the market views this. They think if someone like RDN gets stressed, no big deal, another Ponzi scheme outfit just takes over. However, as the problem gets systemic (just a matter of time), then that's a whole new ball game.