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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (89491)	1/16/2004 2:33:29 PM
From: quote 007	Respond to of 209892

Copyright 2004 by Chartcraft, Inc. 30 Church Street, POB 1747, New Rochelle, NY 10801 -1747 Phone: 914-632-0422 Fax: 914-632-0335 Email: usinfo@chartcraft.com Website: chartcraft.com The Directors may now, or in the future, have a position in the stocks mentioned in this service. Weekly Review Friday January 16, 2004 Nasdaq lead 2004 rally to further highs We are now getting 4th quarter earnings results, and the very high expectations need to be met for the rally to continue. IBM did that, helping action Thursday, while Intel and Yahoo disappointed. Financial stocks also got a boost on the takeover bid for Bank One by JP Morgan. Indicators continue to be bullish, but overbought, with most at highs and none near downturns, let alone sells. The TIR Composite, a short term indicator, moved from above 70% to below 70% and that turned this indicator from bullish to neutral. The Master Indicator moved back to a buy signal the first session of 2004. Buying & Selling Climaxes (January 12th) We still count a high number of buying climaxes, with the current 285 down slightly from 317 the week before. The number of climaxes seen over the last six months has broken all records by a wide margin. Buying climaxes are a sign of distribution with stocks passing from strong hands to weak ones, occurring when a stock makes a new 12-month high, but then closes the week with a loss. Historically, on a stock basis, we have found that that people who sell into buying climaxes are proven to have done the right thing about 80% of the time after four months. Industry Group Analysis (January 13th) The Bullish % Sum was +26.5, as of January 13th, up from the January 6th reading of +24.5. The Sum chart shows a P&F buy signal. Advisors’ Sentiment Review (January 14th) The bears slipped back below 20% to 18.8%, a low since the 9/19/03 reading. The bears have been under 25% for 37 weeks in a row, while the bulls have been over 50% for the same length of time. The current bulls are 56.4%, down a little bit from 57.3% last time. Readings are still very much like those that were seen in the August-October 1987 period. The risk level increases substantially when advisors are as bullish as they have been. Normal readings are 45% bulls and 35% bears. Insiders (January 15th) Since New Year’s the pace of insider selling has fallen to just over 5½ shares sold for every share bought, from the December highs above 7, but this is still very high on a historic basis, and bearish. The Master Indicator (January 16th ) The Master Indicator was slightly higher at +168.0, up from +163.5 last week. It had moved to a P&F buy signal two weeks ago. Improving Nasdaq action accounted to the change