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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (5272)	1/16/2004 3:15:26 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

the dollar has slid from 120 down to 85 with everyone predicting the next few pts was going to cause bonds to blow-up. Now that it hasn't happened, maybe it is time to come up with a different theory?? just a thought the pt is: Japan and China have no choice but to show up at auctions. The consumer is starting to pull back -- when imports narrow significantly in nominal terms (I think that they are already is in real terms) -- buying pressure on the bonds from abroad may ease a bit, but what will happen here?? Folks love to talk about Argentina ... but we aren't small enough that we can be swung around like that -- I'm serious. Marginal selling can push up rates, but you are not going to see the rapid disclocation like down there. Our Asian friends are in the same boat with us -- they can't go shooting holes in the bottom of the boat, lest they shoot themselves in the foot, too. Economic slowdown goes worldwide shortly after everyone recognizes there is not gonna be a re-flation success here.