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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (5312)	1/16/2004 5:41:29 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<commercials going long 221,440 ED contracts> Of course that should read, going SHORT 221,440 ED contracts.

To: russwinter who wrote (5312)	1/16/2004 5:58:58 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I used commitmentsoftraders.com when it was free. softwarenorth.net allows you to view the history. I don't see ED open interest as extreme. softwarenorth.net What do you think about launching of Equity Gold Trust? Similar Australian fund Gold Bullion Securities which is also trading in London has absorbed some 272,203 oz of gold. goldbullion.com

To: russwinter who wrote (5312)	1/16/2004 6:19:12 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ the beauty of eurodollars is that there is an implied target. There is NO implied target on gold or silver or oil or soybeans. On Eurodollars the implied target at expiry is the FF rate minus about 20 BPs. Thus on eurodollars COTs I think you are wasting your time looking at them for some kind of reasonable meaning. Yes.... If there is a good jobs report they may take a big hit. If they just dip out of BS profit taking, long liquidation or any other horsesh*t reason we will have a HUGE buying opportunity. In the meantime I am primarily short puts WAY OTM. Decay is eating away. Some puts I sold for 26 BPs I covered for 3. Most stuff I am a full 1 point or MORE short puts below the implied future rate. IF we dip I am adding. A meaningful dip here is a godsend to add more. I doubt we dip substantially. Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (5312)	1/16/2004 6:37:33 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

That's what this one percent FF does, encourages speculation in everything from JNPR to corn to big bets against the USD. I think it's very destabilizing, and just don't see how they unravel it without a lot of brain matter splattered against the wall? IMO the FED is PURPOSELY targeting equities. They do not give one shit about the insanity of it. In fact I bet they think they are doing a fine job. It is TOTALLY FN insane. IMO FAR more insane than the 1% rate itself. My theory is that 1) the FED wants to get pension funds out of the hole and is stupid enough to think this can be maintained on a long term basis 2) The FED is stupid enough to think that a stock market rise will create new jobs 3) The FED is stupid enough to think it can handle 5 bubbles simultaneously That said, this is going to end up in one huge mother f*ucking DEFLATIONARY crash. When stocks and house prices start to fall and people have no money and try to "save" what they can out of the next equity crash, there just might not be anyone that a) wants to lend at 1% becasue of credit risk, and b) those with good credit will have nothing of use to borrow money for Mish

To: russwinter who wrote (5312)	1/17/2004 8:47:27 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

European carmakers have been hit especially hard by the rising euro, because they pay for parts and labor in euros to build cars they export to the United States, where customers pay in dollars. As the dollar weakens, manufacturers that have not hedged will get fewer and fewer euros' worth of revenue for each dollar sale. There are two ways they can respond: they can raise the dollar prices of their cars in the United States to compensate for the weaker exchange rate, or they can absorb the difference in the form of lower profits. Neither choice is attractive. ---------------------- Mr. Dudenhöffer raised eyebrows here recently with a study meant to dramatize how exchange rates can shake up the global auto industry. He showed that the euro had risen so much against the dollar that it would be cheaper for Germans to buy high-priced German cars in the United States and pay import duties and other costs to have them shipped back to Germany than to buy them at home. ---------------------- The euro's recent surge has put risk managers in a tricky position. Mr. Herr of BMW believes that at $1.25, the euro is overvalued. Using computer models, he estimates the currency's correct long-term value at something closer to $1.10. Based on that estimate, BMW has opted not to hedge heavily in 2005. If the dollar stages a rebound, that bet will pay off. If the dollar remains weak until next year, however, BMW will have to take up short-term hedges at less favorable rates. Other carmakers are in similar straits. nytimes.com