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To: orkrious who wrote (274320)	1/16/2004 8:14:39 PM
From: Tom Swift	Respond to of 436258

In counterpoint. I could argue that we have merely reverted to the mean in a secular bull market. stockcharts.com[w,a]mhclyiay[pd20,2!b20!b50!b200!f][vc60][iut!lb5!la12,26,9!ll14][J19506497,Y]&listNum=1 Using the crash of '87 as a starting point, we have the "mean" secular bull from '87 to early '95, an overheated phase from early '95 to '00, and a correction back to the mean from '00 the late '02 and a new overheated stage from late '02 to present. That's 7, 5, 3, ~1. No one can predict the future, but the case that we are "really" in a secular bear market that will not end for another generation seems flawed. I think the difference this time is in the velocity of money and information combined with a huge rise in new instuments to trade with low entry barriers. This is one of the reasons that the market does not make much sense using things like Dow theory and sector rotation cycles anymore. Sometimes the sector rotation happens intraweek when in the past it took months or years.

To: orkrious who wrote (274320)	1/16/2004 8:18:16 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 436258

deflation here we come prudentbear.com Over the last few days Central bankers have been making statements to firm the dollar. There are also signs that they are taking less visible, coordinated action. While this action may provide short-term stability - by providing supply-side stimulus to inflate financial assets - in total these actions are actually deflationary. The move to reduce the supply of guaranteed long-dated debt, which began with the withdrawal of 30-year notes, means that any debt retired must be replaced with debt at the shorter end of the yield curve. Of course, this action reduces the government's cost of capital, at least in today's environment. But in our view, this move also was made to encourage the issuance of mortgage-backed securities. Regardless of the reason, this shortening process is ongoing and it represents a major deflationary exposure in a way that investors may not have noticed. ... Yes, the government's debt becomes more serviceable as rates move lower. However, every short-term piece of paper printed makes it more a difficult policy questions of when to raise interest rates. Thus, interest rate policy locks itself into an environment of zero percent return (and chronic negative real return) until liquidity becomes unavailable. Currently, an inflationary bias is also reflected in the weakening dollar and rising gold prices. But it is the long term interest rate that provides clues as to whether or not we will experience a deflationary depression, stagflation (deflation-inflation), or hyperinflation. A deflationary depression would be the worst scenario possible.

To: orkrious who wrote (274320)	1/16/2004 10:04:10 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 436258

New currency play: Dinar Gains Strength From Associated Press BAGHDAD — As the euro, yen and other major currencies surge in value against the wilting dollar, even Iraq's bantamweight upstart — the "Saddam-free" dinar — is showing unexpected muscle. The new dinar, introduced in the fall, has strengthened by about 45% in dollar terms. The previous notes became worthless Thursday. Coalition authorities see the dinar's ascent as a vote of confidence in Iraq's economy. But currency traders blame speculators in neighboring countries for hoarding the dinar and driving up its value in the hope of later dumping it to make a quick profit.