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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: russwinter who wrote (5360)1/17/2004 1:51:22 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 110194
 
I'm still a little unclear on why going long rate futures is the way to play it? Wouldn't just a straight short of everything be better?

Because the ED play is safer.
Shorts continue to be blown out of the water here.
We will start to see a slowdown in economic activity and the next damn thing they might do is CUT again to "fix" it (and stimulate jobs growth - In Asia of course) Seriously. WTF knows what the market would do with that?

In the meantime Euroland is struggling with a high euro and poor growth. I think they do CUT and IF they do, I get 300% return on calls. That is plenty good enough and far better than trying to time this equity trainwreck we both know is coming.

BTW. We are totally fucked here no matter what. The train will keep running until ALL fuel is used up. Will it plow into the side of a mountain or will it just run out of gas and die? Whichever it is, it will not be pretty but the final attempt to FIX it can easily be the one and only thing Uncle Al knows how to do. Throw more money at the problem. Gold should soar.

Mish



To: russwinter who wrote (5360)1/17/2004 2:24:05 PM
From: excardog  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 110194
 
Hi Russ just discovered your thread. One thing I think we may see soon in auto selling is a "negative interest rate teaser".

Borrow 15k for example and repay 14.5k or some such nonsense. Say -2% apr auto loans.

Call me crazy but I think it could happen in order to keep the machine in motion.

My opinion



To: russwinter who wrote (5360)1/17/2004 6:03:54 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
Any comments on this?

Message 19703867