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To: calgal who wrote (5393)1/17/2004 11:03:53 PM
From: calgal  Respond to of 6358
 
US sentiment brightens, factories rev up as US recovery digs in
Fri Jan 16, 4:37 PM ET Add Business - AFP to My Yahoo!


WASHINGTON (AFP) - Consumer sentiment soared to a four-year high and factories revved up as the US economic recovery took hold, data showed. The missing key, however, was jobs.

AFP/File Photo

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Gathering economic strength raised spirits.

Sentiment among US consumers, whose spending accounts for two-thirds of US economic output, soared in early January, according to a University of Michigan survey.

The university's closely watched consumer sentiment index leapt to 103.2 points in early January -- the highest in more than three years -- from 92.6 in late December.

The key components of the Michigan index improved. An index of people's feelings about current conditions rose to 108.9 from 97.0 in December. An expectations index rose to 99.5 from 89.8.

Meanwhile, manufacturers, long the soft spot in the economy with 2.8 million jobs lost in the sector since July 2000, boosted output 0.3 percent in December, the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) said.

That lifted fourth quarter factory output to an annual growth rate of 6.6 percent -- the fastest since spring 2000.

"The manufacturing sector is becoming healthier by the month and confirming the staying power of the expansion," Naroff Economic Advisors president Joel Naroff said.

"No longer the weakest link, the nation's industrial heartland continues to move forward."

Despite busier factories, overall industrial output gained only 0.1 percent as comparatively mild December weather triggered a 1.4-percent slump in output by utilities. Mining production was steady.

But overall industrial production in November was revised upwards to show a gain of 1.0 percent, up from the original estimate of a 0.9-percent surge and the steepest rise since October 1999.

The figures appeared to confirm an earlier Institute for Supply Management survey showing December manufacturing activity accelerated to the quickest pace since 1983.

According to another survey by the Manufacturers Alliance, factory bosses believe the outlook in 2004 is the best in at least 31 years.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book survey of the economy this week also pointed to a manufacturing rebound.

"All (the reports) confirm that manufacturing activity is growing and the recovery is widespread within the sector," said Manufacturers Alliance chief economist Daniel Meckstroth.

"A tax cut-aided consumer spending surge jumpstarted the manufacturing sector. What has kept this industrial recovery going, though, is a rebound in capital equipment spending and an acceleration in US exports aided by the weakening value of the dollar," he said.

But despite signs of solid economic growth, companies had yet to start hiring, Naroff said.



"The policy-making Federal Open Market Committee (news - web sites), which next meets January 27-28, was unlikely to raise interest rates until signs of a labor market recovery were evident, he said.

"With hiring soft and growth strong, we should see another quarter of impressive productivity gains and that means solid increases in earnings," Naroff said.

"If we could only get some jobs, all would be right with the economy."



To: calgal who wrote (5393)1/17/2004 11:05:06 PM
From: calgal  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6358
 
Tech execs feel slump is behind them
Fri Jan 16, 6:17 AM ET Add Business - USATODAY.com to My Yahoo!


By Kevin Maney and Michelle Kessler, USA TODAY

The technology slump is history.


• Consumers feel chipper; production, inventories grow
• Continental CEO to retire at year's end in unexpected departure
• Former star banker Quattrone fined $30,000
• GE's fourth-quarter earnings up 47%, on target
• Pizza people prepare Super Bowl blitz


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Search USATODAY.com



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That's the collective feeling after a week of upbeat tech earnings news, topped off Thursday by IBM's strong performance. After a nearly three-year tech downturn, consumers and businesses are once again buying computers, networking equipment and technology services, say analysts and executives.

It's not a flood of spending, but small upward ticks are packing a punch. During the slump, many tech companies cut costs and made operations more efficient, so increases in sales are flowing right to the bottom line.

IBM (IBM), for instance, reported that earnings this past quarter nearly tripled on an 8% increase in revenue vs. a year ago.

This year "begins the next growth cycle for technology," says John Joyce, IBM's chief financial officer - his most jubilant statement yet about a recovery.

"CEOs are taking their foot off the brake, and it's heading toward the gas pedal" of tech spending, says John Chambers, CEO of Cisco Systems (CSCO), which will report earnings Feb. 2.

The better times are helping even struggling companies, as Sun Microsystems (SUNW) showed Thursday. Sun reported revenue of $2.9 billion for its second fiscal quarter, down 1% from a year earlier. That's lackluster compared with IBM and Intel, but a good sign for Sun.

However, this is not the start of a tech explosion like the 1990s, industry executives say. Growth is expected to be steadier and more focused.

For instance, companies that sell huge corporate software packages, such as SAP (SAP) and Siebel Systems (SEBL), have been plodding, while upstarts offering Web-based corporate software have been taking wing. One of those, Salesforce.com, is expected to be among 2004's hottest IPOs. Also, while Intel's earnings doubled last quarter, the company says that much of that growth came from selling chips for laptops with wireless Internet access, reflecting the growing popularity of Wi-Fi. What companies reported:

• In the fourth quarter of 2003, IBM earned $2.7 billion, or $1.55 a share, on revenue of $25.9 billion. A year ago, IBM earned $1 billion on $23.7 billion in revenue. CFO Joyce sees IBM and the tech industry gaining momentum, suggesting analysts' forecasts for IBM's 2004 growth might be low.

IBM shares closed Thursday at $94.02, up $3.71.

• Sun lost $125 million in the quarter, thanks to cost controls, Sun says. It lost $2.3 billion a year ago, including a huge write-down. The news, released after the market closed, sent Sun shares up 5 cents to $5.41 in after-hours trading.

The No. 4 computer server maker soared during the tech boom, selling proprietary business computers. But Sun is struggling as "the world moves to standardized products that are much cheaper than the stuff Sun sells," says Needham & Co. analyst Charles Wolf.