Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (5405)	1/18/2004 10:03:59 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

From Plunger on my board on the FOOL I'm off travelling for the next week, so the board is relieved of my posts for a while! Just to summarise current positions: 1. Long Eurodollars and equivalents, betting on lower rates in the US and elsewhere. The markets still price in hikes. There isn't "guaranteed one way street value" but I think it's a winner over the course of the year. 2. Long gold, silver, miners. Adding to silver on dips, such as the market will give, which are not big just here. Silver is strong or some-one's faking us. Added to miners on Fri; the HUI basket roughly but avoiding CDE and HL as they do seem a bit over-popular, and overweight Sout Africans and silver plays. 3. A little long EUR, AUD, CAD currencies, but they are a trade here, not a hold; the big move is done. Will add more EUR at 1.225 if we get there. 4. Nearly out of emerging market stocks. The India funds, IFN and IIF are down over 10% this past week - and still trading over NAV which is a warning sign for closed end funds. China H index is down 20% nearly on the year and very frothy as we saw from the crazy veggie IPO. BP just sold their 2% stake in Petro China so they don't see much more upside I guess. But looking to re-enter emerging stocks after both an emerging market washout, and, if it happens, a US stock washout too. If SPX 1160 is the top and enough people believe it the drop could be hard. But emerging markets are a great secular theme at the right price. Core view: Looking for US consumer exhaustion near term, revitalising the deflation theme, especially outside the US where it was never really believed and will take markets by surprise. Plunger.