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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: goldworldnet who wrote (525867)	1/18/2004 11:04:36 AM
From: PartyTime	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 769670

This election, as all of 'em, will be contingent on how independent voters perceive the respective candidates. Except for money needed to secure a candidate's base, most of the obscene campaign money gets aimed toward luring independents. Perhaps the key in many state elections will be the Hispanic vote. They tend to favor Democrat candidates; however, Bush is now on record as having thrown them a bone. Ultimately, however, in the ultimate analysis, I doubt these voters will bite into the Bush bone and I suspect most of 'em will remain, as will new Hispanic voters, in the column of Democrats. Only when a candidate has a capability of attracting grassroots voters, many of whom never voted before, can the stakes change--we've seen this with candidates like Ventura and Wellstone of Minnesota, Sanders of Vermont, The Terminator of California and a few others. The problem here is that this rarely happens. Of the candidates now running for president I think only Dean has this grassroots capability, mostly due to his MD status. And I think the guage for this was all the hoopla shown when Frist of Tennesse got his party's top spot in the Senate. For some reason, I think voters like the idea of a doctor-politician. My hunch--and it's a premature one since I haven't analyzed to any degree any of the respective statewide races--is that the Dems will take the White House largely due to a lack of leadership trust and scandal within the Bush-Cheney Administration; I think the Senate will remain close although it's possible the GOP might hold a thin lead because the DEMs seem to have more vulnerable races; and I think the GOP will likely continue to control the House, but by a smaller margin than what they have now. That's my best answer at this point, but I qualify my remarks in a statement that I need to look more closely at the '04 demograhpics.