New Jersey going for Bush???? A state that just voted in a Democratic legislature to go with its Democratic governor??? Be still, my beating heart! :-)
Jerseyans like Dean but like Bush more
Once for Gore, N.J. gets off donkey
Sunday, January 18, 2004
BY JOHN HASSELL
Star-Ledger Staff
Even as candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination scramble for support in tomorrow's Iowa caucuses, a new Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll suggests the eventual winner of the primary election season will face an uphill battle against President Bush in November.
New Jersey, a state considered reliably Democratic in recent years, favors Bush over his Democratic challengers, 41 percent to 38 percent, according to the telephone poll of 904 adults that was conducted between Jan. 7 and Jan. 13 and carries a margin of error of 3.9 percent.
While the survey's results could indicate Garden State voters -- the Democrats, in particular -- are waiting to see who Bush's opponent will be, a tight race in New Jersey would augur well for Bush's re-election.
"Most Democrats will probably come home unless there is a serious flaw in their party's nominee," said Cliff Zukin, director of the poll. Still, "if the race is close in New Jersey, it won't be close nationally."
Four years ago, in one of the tightest presidential contests in history, Bush lost New Jersey to then-Vice President Al Gore by 16 percentage points.
In this year's battle for the Democratic nomination, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean leads the field of eight candidates in New Jersey, with the support of 23 percent of respondents. (In this smaller sample of 373 registered voters who described themselves as Democrats or as leaning toward the Democratic party, the margin of error is 6.9 percent.)
Behind Dean, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) are tied at 11 percent, Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) has 10 percent, retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark has 9 percent and activist Al Sharpton has 8 percent. Trailing the field are Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio), each with 3 percent.
New Jerseyans' preference in the Democratic contest is unlikely to matter, however, because the state's primary is scheduled for June 8, long after the nomination is expected to be decided.
Despite the early edge for Bush, New Jerseyans remain divided on his leadership, with 50 percent of respondents expressing approval for the job he is doing as president and 43 percent voicing disapproval. While 42 percent of people believe the country is going in the right direction, 45 percent believe it is on the wrong track.
Bush retains strong support among Republicans, with 85 percent approving of his job performance and only 14 percent saying they disapprove.
For voters like Bob Benthien, a 54-year-old retiree who lives in Basking Ridge, nothing any Democratic challenger can do or say will shake them from choosing Bush. "There is zero chance I will vote for a Democrat this year," he said. "Not even close."
Democrats, however, are almost as united in opposing Bush. The poll found that 71 percent of Democrats disapprove of the job Bush is doing, while 22 percent approve.
One of those polled, Stefon Dynes, a 19-year-old butcher who lives in Irvington, said he was particularly frustrated with the situation in Iraq. "I'm not for the war, I'm not for all the stuff that's going on," he said. "I think the war in Iraq could have been avoided and I don't think Bush is a good president."
Bush's job approval in New Jersey continues to lag behind his national ratings. A Gallup poll conducted during the same time period as the Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers survey found 59 percent of the country as a whole approves of Bush's performance, while 38 percent disapproves.
Dean's leading margin among Democrats in New Jersey, meanwhile, mirrors the national scene -- with one notable exception. Clark, who received the support of 20 percent of Democrats nationally in the Gallup poll, garnered only 9 percent in New Jersey.
The former NATO commander has picked up strong support in some quarters, though, despite his lack of experience on the political stage.
Sherry Jacobs, a 60-year-old learning consultant who lives in Manahawkin, said Clark's military background and leadership qualities make him more attractive and more electable than his opponents.
"We need to have a leader in there who knows how to give a directive and see that directive is carried out," she said. |
