Tight Iowa Race Signals Campaign Remains Open
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With Dean's Aura Dimming,
Democratic Rivals See Chance
To Pick Up New Momentum
By JACOB M. SCHLESINGER and JOHN HARWOOD
Staff Reporters of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Updated January 19, 2004 3:08 a.m.
DES MOINES, Iowa -- The state that seemed poised to elevate Howard Dean to the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination instead appears to be throwing open the door to a protracted and competitive race.
Late surveys before Monday night's Iowa precinct caucuses have shown Mr. Dean losing popular support, while Sens. John Kerry of Massachusetts and John Edwards of North Carolina have been gaining rapidly. Rep. Richard Gephardt, from neighboring Missouri, remains within striking distance of victory.
Mr. Dean's superior organization and unsurpassed campaign treasury could still help him salvage a first-place showing in the unpredictable caucuses. But Iowa already has changed the race by denting the aura of inevitability that once surrounded the former Vermont governor. Signs that his hard-edged, antiwar message is hitting a ceiling have breathed new life into the campaigns of his challengers as they turn their focus toward the primary contests that lie beyond this Midwestern launching point (See article).
Bracing for a setback, Dean strategists insist their reach will allow them to weather any Iowa outcome as the race heads onto a wider national playing field. In just the first 10 days of January, even as his standing fell under rivals' attacks and his own missteps, Mr. Dean raised an additional $2 million. That 10-day tally is more than half as much as Messrs. Kerry and Edwards raised, separately, over the final three months of 2003. Indeed, most of Mr. Dean's rivals have limited resources and their ability to keep competing will hinge on good early showings drawing new donors.
Still, even a well-funded campaign can't fully control its image, and media coverage of Mr. Dean -- which helped lift his insurgent campaign in its early days -- has been adding to his recent challenges. Sunday, Dean aides awoke to a giant, front-page headline in the Des Moines Register proclaiming, "Kerry, Edwards Surge" over a photo of Mr. Dean with a large red arrow pointing down with the label, "Slumping." The final precaucus poll by the state's largest newspaper showed Mr. Kerry leading with support from 26% of likely caucus participants, with Mr. Edwards close behind with 23%. Mr. Dean and Mr. Gephardt received the support of 20% and 18%, respectively.
That is a substantial change from surveys taken late last year, which showed Mr. Dean either leading the pack or locked in a tight race with Mr. Gephardt, and the other candidates lagging far behind. The survey was taken Tuesday through Friday and has a margin of error of four percentage points, meaning the race is essentially too close to call.
FIELD OF DEMS
Recent contested Iowa Democratic caucuses
YEAR CANDIDATE (Eventual presidential nominee in bold) CAUCUS RESULTS
2000 Al Gore 63.4%
Bill Bradley 34.9%
1988 Richard Gephardt 31.3%
Paul Simon 26.7%
Michael Dukakis 22.2%
1984 Walter Mondale 48.9%
Gary Hart 16.5%
George McGovern 10.3%
1980 Jimmy Carter 59.1%
Edward Kennedy 31.2%
1976 Uncommitted 37.2%
Jimmy Carter 27.6%
Birch Bayh 13.2%
Source: Iowa Democratic Party
The 2004 race is the most wide-open and hotly contested vote here since 1988, when Mr. Gephardt pulled off a big win, though he later failed to secure the nomination. Because Iowa's caucus is the first contest in the presidential nominating process, it has often -- though not always -- helped shape campaigns. Former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter used his victory here in 1976 to catapult his long-shot candidacy to the nomination. In 2000, Iowa helped Vice President Al Gore beat back a serious challenge from former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley.
But Iowa's caucuses also can be very hard to predict. The format requires Democrats to show up at their local precincts for at least two hours and publicly declare their preferences. It favors the candidate with the best organization and the most dedicated followers.
Mr. Dean, who has been carefully building an Internet-driven network for nearly a year, appears far stronger by that measure than Messrs. Kerry or Edwards. Over the weekend, 2,000 Dean volunteers from around the U.S. descended on Iowa to make calls and knock on doors, sporting bright orange "Grassroots for Dean" knit caps. Only Mr. Gephardt -- backed by a large bloc of industrial unions -- can match the scale of Mr. Dean's voter drive.
Moreover, Mr. Dean made two moves Sunday, after the Register poll had been completed, that could boost his support before the vote. He took a quick trip to Georgia to meet with former President Carter, who stopped short of an endorsement but praised Mr. Dean's "courageous and outspoken" stands. Later in the day, Mr. Dean was joined in Iowa for the first time by his wife, whose absence until now has deprived his campaign of the personal touch that has aided other candidates.
The trend in Iowa has been echoed in recent polls showing similar slippage for Mr. Dean in New Hampshire, which holds the season's first primary on Jan. 27. Together, the results suggest Democrats are harboring second thoughts about crowning the fiery Mr. Dean to carry the party's banner against President George W. Bush in November.
In New Hampshire, retired Gen. Wesley Clark has edged closer to Mr. Dean in the polls, while Mr. Kerry remains a threat. Seven more states vote on Feb. 3, including South Carolina, which is friendly terrain for Mr. Edwards, and Mr. Gephardt's native Missouri.
The question hanging over Mr. Dean's rise all along has been whether his pugnacious populist message has appeal beyond a solid core of dedicated supporters who are irate toward Mr. Bush. A large, last-minute shift of undecided voters toward Messrs. Kerry and Edwards would suggest the answer to that question is "No."
"Dean and Gephardt have locked up their base, but they haven't grown it," Iowa's Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack said of the campaign's fluid finish. "Kerry makes people feel safe and secure, and Edwards has run a positive, optimistic campaign." Mr. Vilsack has stayed neutral in the race, though his wife endorsed Mr. Kerry, a decorated Vietnam veteran and member of the Senate since 1985. Hopeful Kerry backers have summed up the endgame in Iowa with buttons and bumper stickers saying: "Dated Dean, Married Kerry."
THE JOURNAL ASKS
Howard Dean and the other Democratic presidential candidates share personal views and influences in a Wall Street Journal questionnaire.
While Mr. Dean's sharp-tongued attacks on Mr. Bush and Democratic opponents originally propelled his candidacy, they might have turned off as many voters as they have attracted. The candidate drew loud cheers when he lashed out on Jan. 11 at an elderly Bush supporter who interrupted one of his rallies in the town of Oelwein. "You sit down, you've had your say, now I'm going to have my say!" Mr. Dean yelled. But Laree Randall, a 53-year old store owner in the audience, didn't join in the chorus, and wondered afterward about Mr. Dean's style. "Shouldn't it be toned down?" she asked.
Some Iowa Democrats, in fact, say Mr. Dean's bluster reminds them too much of the swaggering president he loves to blast and makes them uneasy about both men. "He frightens me," said Bonnie Cummings, 43, who joined about 40 neighbors at a shed on her uncle's farm in Adel one weekday to meet Mr. Kerry. "Dean acts too much like Bush."
Mr. Dean faces problems beyond his demeanor, to adjusting to changes in voter concerns. His campaign first caught fire with his strong, vocal opposition to the Iraq war, at a time when all his major opponents in Congress were voting to give Mr. Bush authority to invade. When Mr. Dean boasted of his antiwar bona fides this week at the "Teen Aces Club" in Newton, Dana Blom joined the loud applause. But the 45-year-old teacher's aide still walked out favoring Mr. Kerry. She was disappointed Mr. Dean didn't say anything during his speech about what he'd do now in Baghdad, and Ms. Blom said she felt the veteran Massachusetts legislator would be better equipped to respond. Mr. Dean, she said, "should address the here and now of Iraq, not the shouldn't have."
The reconsideration of Mr. Dean has been balanced by a willingness to give second looks to Sens. Kerry and Edwards, both of whom have endured far less public scrutiny and criticism than Mr. Dean.
Mr. Kerry began his campaign a year ago widely viewed as the favorite, but his vote for the Iraq war cost him crucial votes among the party's base. He frequently has been uninspiring on the trail and has suffered management turmoil in his campaign. His fundraising has all but dried up, his campaign is in debt, and he has loaned himself $6 million to keep his candidacy afloat.
In Iowa, though, he appears finally to have hit his stride as a campaigner. His military background has figured prominently in the pageantry of his campaign, from his personal piloting of a black helicopter, labeled "Hell in Motion," as he frantically hopscotched around the state visiting rural communities, to a dramatic, public reunion Saturday with a veteran he rescued in Vietnam 35 years ago.
"Don't just go there to send America a message," he tells potential caucus-goers at virtually every stop, in a subtle slap at Mr. Dean. "Go there to send America a president of the United States." Some voters now seem more willing to pay attention to Mr. Kerry's long Washington resume, comparing it with Mr. Dean's dozen years as governor of one of the smallest states in the country.
Write to Jacob M. Schlesinger at jacob.schlesinger@wsj.com and John Harwood at john.harwood@wsj.com |
