The Democrats are in a state of disarray tonight...
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Kerry Wins Iowa's Caucuses While Dean Staggers to Third
Edwards Runs Strong Second While Gephardt Falls Short
A WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE NEWS ROUNDUP
DES MOINES, Iowa -- In a surprise launch to the 2004 presidential campaign, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts won the Iowa caucuses, and Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina came come in second, staggering the campaign of onetime front-runner Howard Dean.
Based on more than 90% of precinct counts, Mr. Kerry will be the winner, with Mr. Edwards running a strong second. Mr. Dean is coming in third, with Rep. Richard Gephardt in a disappointing fourth place.
Mr. Gephardt scrapped plans to fly to New Hampshire for next week's primary, and Democratic officials confirmed that he intends to drop out of the presidential race.
Two weeks ago, Messrs. Dean and Gephardt were the co-favorites, but Monday night the former Vermont governor was stuck in third. He pledged to plow ahead, saying, "on to New Hampshire.'' Mr. Gephardt, winner of the 1988 caucuses, fell far short of the victory he needed to keep his political career alive.
With 93% of the precincts reporting, Mr. Kerry led with 38% of the vote, followed by Mr. Edwards at 32%. Mr. Dean had just 18%, Mr. Gephardt 11% and Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio had 1% of the vote.
Mr. Kerry predicted that New Hampshire voters will respond to his domestic agenda. "At the same time, we need a leader who can make American safer in the world,'' said the Vietnam War veteran.
Massachusetts's junior senator reached back a dozen years and borrowed a line from former President Clinton to put his victory into context. ``I want to thank Iowa for making me the Comeback Kerry,'' he said.
"It feels terrific,'' Mr. Edwards said of his strong showing as he awaited the final results at a downtown hotel. ``What's happened here the last two weeks with my campaign has been phenomenal.''
Polls of voters taken as they entered caucus gatherings showed the level of support Mr. Kerry received. The entrance survey showed that 35% of participants intended to back the Massachusetts senator. The surveys showed that Mr. Edwards, a boyish ex-trial lawyer who stood out by running a positive campaign that pledged to fight to for families of modest means, was favored by 26% of participants going into the caucuses, outpacing the 20% who turned out for Mr. Dean.
Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri, the long-time House leader who won the Iowa caucuses in his 1988 presidential bid, drew just 11% of caucus participants notwithstanding a large organization spearheaded by labor unions drawn by his opposition to trade deals. The dismal result was certain to end his campaign.
The survey also confirmed that events slipped away from Mr. Dean in the closing days of the campaign. Among those who said they decided in the last three days before the caucuses, 36% went for Mr. Kerry, 33% for Mr. Edwards, and just 18% for Mr. Dean.
As that suggests, Mr. Dean lost his Iowa lead in recent weeks despite a heavy ad campaign, extensive organizational apparatus, and the army of "Deaniacs" wearing electric-orange caps who flooded the state in recent days to knock on doors. The results cast doubt on Mr. Dean's argument that only he among the Democratic contenders can motivate millions of first-time voters needed to compete President Bush in November.
The entrance polls measured the preferences of Iowa voters as they entered caucus sites scattered among the state's 1,997 voting precincts. Delegates awarded from the caucus meetings to follow -- two hour sessions in which Iowans publicly declare and in some cases deliberate over their choices -- were likely to alter those proportions somewhat.
The result send the Democratic field on to a challenging primary obstacle whose central assumption -- that all but one candidate would quickly fall over -- suddenly seemed in doubt. The campaigns of Sens. Kerry and Edwards, in particular, found new energy from their effective campaigning and rising poll numbers in the Iowa homestretch.
The most immediate question was whether Mr. Dean could recover with a victory in New Hampshire, where he has built a devoted following, especially among young liberal voters, that his strategists believe can withstand early setbacks. But the entrance polls showed that Mr. Kerry drew more caucus participants of all age groups and among Iowans who identified themselves as liberal.
Mr. Dean outdrew the field among Iowans who said the Iraq war, which he staunchly opposed, was their top concern. But the poll showed they represented just 13% of those who turned out -- half as many as said they were most concerned about the economy or about health care. Mr. Dean will face still competition there not only from Messrs. Kerry and Edwards, but also from retired Gen. Wesley Clark. Mr. Clark skipped the Iowa contest to focus his impressive campaign treasury on New Hampshire's Jan. 27 primary and subsequent contests elsewhere.
Each leading Democrat could look forward to a complicated menu of challenges and opportunities. Mr. Dean looked forward to returning to friendly ground in New Hampshire, where he has built a fervent following but seen his lead dwindle in recent weeks. Mr. Kerry, once the favorite in both New Hampshire and the national nomination fight, was counting on momentum from Iowa to help him recapture support lost to both Mr. Dean and retired Gen. Wesley Clark.
And Mr. Edwards is hoping simply to survive New Hampshire's Jan. 27 primary with enough public support and financial resources to compete in South Carolina, the most closely-watched of the seven-state delegate contests a week later on Feb. 3. Mr. Edwards can claim regional advantage there. Mr. Gephardt's likely departure from the race is sure to intensify competition for African-American voters, who are expected to make up some 50% of the South Carolina primary electorate. Mr. Gephardt has enjoyed the support of his House colleague Rep. James Clyburn, an influential figure with black South Carolinians.
Because of his superior fund-raising and organizational reach, Mr. Dean starts out with the greatest capacity to compete on Feb. 3 and beyond on battlegrounds such as Michigan and Wisconsin. But Mr. Clark's $10-million fourth-quarter fund-raising has enough him to begin advertising heavily in New Hampshire and South Carolina, among other places.
Mr. Kerry's lagging late-year fund-raising has already led him to loan the campaign $6-million of his own money. But aides say they've already received a boost in contributions in recent days on strength of his rise in the polls here.
Mr. Edwards, though lacking a caucus organization as extensive as Mr. Kerry's to help convert late momentum into votes, also has started receiving a badly-need infusion of cash, his strategists say. "There will be a bounce off this," said Edwards strategist David Axelrod.
The homestretch developments in Iowa were only the latest twist in a Democratic campaign that had consistently defied prediction. A year ago, Mr. Kerry was considered the national front-runner, Mr. Edwards a promising alternative, and Mr. Gephardt the experienced contender who enjoyed a regional advantage here next to his native Missouri.
But the Iraq war -- which Mr. Dean opposed but his better known rivals voted to authorize -- proved the opening that the former Vermont governor needed to lift a campaign that had previously focused on health care. The war became a symbol he used to rally a Democratic base deeply-angry at President Bush. Using the Internet in path-breaking fashion, he built a grass-roots army and outpaced rivals with $40-million in contributions.
But the capture of Saddam Hussein by U.S. troops in Iraq last month helped drain the emotional edge from the war's opponents, while Mr. Dean was also damaged by his prickly temperament and penchant for verbal missteps. The beneficiaries in Iowa were Messrs. Kerry and Edwards.
Write to the Online Journal's editors at newseditors@wsj.com
Updated January 19, 2004 10:32 p.m.
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