Oops! Voters in Iowa had a different idea
seattlepi.nwsource.com
By TOM BAXTER
COX NEWS SERVICE
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
DES MOINES, Iowa -- Not so fast, the Democratic caucus-goers of Iowa said last night.
A convocation of voters famously careful about their commitments, the Iowans upset the apple cart of expectations, substituting Sen. John Kerry and Sen. John Edwards for former Gov. Howard Dean and Rep. Richard Gephardt.
Kerry and Edwards gained a huge boost from the evening, but Dean has the potential to bounce back and Gen. Wesley Clark is yet to be reckoned with. Because of the Iowans' tire-kicking caution, there's a much greater chance that when Georgia Democrats go to the polls March 2, their votes will actually count for something.
Entrance polls showed these voters were overwhelmingly skeptical about the war in Iraq, more wired to the Internet and less tied to unions than in any previous caucus -- all factors that should have worked to Dean's advantage.
But they were also Democrats concerned with finding a candidate who can beat George W. Bush, and that factor spoke loudest last night. Dean's message didn't fail; instead it was picked up by his rivals and communicated in more modulated tones.
"I've been in Washington -- and I know it's considered a sin, but if you look at what I've done I believe you'll let me out of purgatory," Kerry said in a late-night meeting with voters in Maquoketa last Thursday.
That's exactly what they did last night. The voters rewarded Kerry and Edwards, both Washington candidates, but only after they had sharpened their messages and moved into a more aggressive posture toward Bush.
Edwards is the candidate in this field whose accent is closest to Bill Clinton's, and Kerry the candidate who used Clinton's words the most liberally as the race came down to the end.
At nearly every stop, Kerry reminded voters of Clinton's comment that the American people "will choose a leader who's strong and wrong over one who's weak and right."
With his combat and national security experience, Kerry told voters, he could stand toe-to-toe with Bush, and be both "strong and right."
As doubts began to rise about Dean in the wake of Saddam Hussein's capture, that message seems to have taken hold among Democrats.
Dean can still resurrect himself in New Hampshire. But if Democratic voters elsewhere are in the same mood as those here, this could come down to a race between two veterans, Kerry and Clark.
Last night also makes the South more important in the race for the nomination, because Edwards and Clark, who is from Arkansas, will have to fight over every delegate in this region, if either is to overtake Kerry.
Kerry's political experience also worked for him. He spent more time in Iowa than any other candidate, while Dean spent precious time traveling to Plains, Ga., last weekend for less than an endorsement from former President Carter. Kerry and Edwards were racing across the frozen plains of Iowa. According to entrance polls, late-deciders broke for Kerry and Edwards by a huge margin.
Women also showed a preference for these two candidates, and in Kerry's case two women in particular were vital: His wife, Teresa, who campaigned the state tirelessly, and Christie Vilsack, wife of Gov. Tom Vilsack, who endorsed Kerry while her husband stayed neutral.
But perhaps the most dramatic endorsement came last weekend, when Jim Rassmann, a registered Republican and ex-policeman, came to Iowa without notice to show his support for Kerry, who he credits with saving his life in Vietnam.
For Bush, there's a good news/bad news quality to these results.
A prolonged battle for the Democratic nomination could be a good thing for the Republicans. The prospect of a nominee who can be painted as a Washington insider as well as another liberal from Massachusetts like Michael Dukakis should have some GOP strategists licking their lips.
But last night's record Democratic turnout, nearly half of which consisted of new voters according to the polls, can't be comforting to the White House.
A decorated war veteran, whatever his address, is not the candidate Bush strategist Karl Rove would prefer. Nor is a smiling lawyer with a Southern accent. Even before Dean began to gain momentum last year, the Republicans were honing a campaign to be waged against an "angry Democrat," and Edwards isn't that.
Suddenly, the nomination battle, and the election year as a whole, look a lot more interesting. |
