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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (5548)	1/20/2004 11:36:15 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Just in case things go completely nuts I bought a June unleaded gas spread for about $700 the 1.20/1.30 spread If gas hits 1.30 and stays up there I can make about $3500 or so on that trade. All it takes is for someone to blowup a Saudi piplene and we will be there in a flash. M

To: russwinter who wrote (5548)	1/20/2004 11:50:01 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

From Heinz: yes, the crack-up boom in China is the main driver of commodities prices here. and you're right, in spite of that, there is no 'price' inflation (and now, even the US money supply has begun to contract sharply), because industrial overcapacities mean there's no pricing power, and thus the rising input costs merely squeeze margins (which is in essence deflationary). my guess: commodities are going to stop going up when China has its '1929' - the bust that is almost certain to follow on the heels of this recent credit expansion boom. when? i think it'll happen this year. the global 'reflation' initiated by exessive money printing will come to a screeching halt sometime this year - and i bet that deflation is going to make headlines again as well. it's an unhealthy echo-boom...the structural damage to the US economy due to the ministrations of fiscal and monetary policy to date is enormous. note, the authorities have no more breathing space - there's no ammunition left to 'counter' the coming bust. it's gonna be a doozy.

To: russwinter who wrote (5548)	1/20/2004 11:58:30 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

0% down FHA loans Why not 0% down 0% interest? That will get things hummin! usatoday.com Bush seeks to increase minority homeownership By Thomas A. Fogarty, USA TODAY In a bid to boost minority homeownership, President Bush will ask Congress for authority to eliminate the down-payment requirement for Federal Housing Administration loans. In announcing the plan Monday at a home builders show in Las Vegas, Federal Housing Commissioner John Weicher called the proposal the "most significant FHA initiative in more than a decade." It would lead to 150,000 first-time owners annually, he said.

To: russwinter who wrote (5548)	1/20/2004 12:04:05 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

commodity topics addressed in my article / jim Since the US Economy is replete with imported goods, ranging from finished products, to component supplies, to energy resources, to commercial materials, a picture of increased production costs is drawn. These are hardly desirable outcomes from officially sponsored reflation efforts. One can properly conclude that costs (NOT PRICES) across the spectrum are rising in systemic fashion, in response to reflation efforts. Such is the "unintended consequence" of the Federal Reserve's desperate but hailed reflation mission. Typically, pricing power is restored at the same time. But not during this business cycle, not with Asians, especially China, placing their pricing boot heel on America's neck. Wait !!! There is more unplanned damage. On the horizon is an OPEC threat of crude oil priced in euro denomination. The non-financial US Economy is nowhere more vulnerable to the declining USDollar than with energy, in particular oil and gas supplies. Recent events surrounding OPEC oil ministers were reported without alarm. The press & media reported intended production cutbacks. They cited ill effects to producer nations and their balance sheets from dollar exposure. They cited an announced higher managed price range for crude oil, in response to dollar exposure. OPEC minister spokesmen even hint of future pricing in euro denomination. The adjusted price interval is in effect a "de-facto euro denomination." This is one of the most important stories in the financial world this year, a May 2003 prediction of mine. It was barely covered by our intrepid lap dogs in the media. Euro pricing by OPEC echoes the identical sentiment put forth by Russian oil leaders this summer. Oil shipments represent a giant slice of world commerce. Settlements are now exclusively made in USDollars. Myriad associated commercial transactions trail what flows in dollar traffic. Downstream, decisions on contracts can easily be swayed toward European vendors instead of American, if euros flow instead of dollars. The impact to higher absorbed energy costs, shipping costs, and transportation costs inside the US Economy would be great, if crude oil rises inversely in price to a persistent US$ decline. Could it be that official reflation efforts are accelerating the job migration to Asia in pursuit of lower costs? Methinks clearly YES, a story totally overlooked by our press & media. We are building the next Asian powerhouses, who are sure to challenge the USA in geopolitical leadership. After having been pushed into a corner in the last decade, our leaders find the economy under their stewardship uncompetitive, and bloated with debts, the direct effect from an overheated USDollar currency. Reflation has increased costs for American businesses, even as profitability has been under pressure. With continued pricing impediments, and threatening new cost challenges, only improved business order flow has come to the rescue. Corporate response to reflation and its assault on costs has been to accelerate job outsourcing to Asia, a colossal backfire in desperate US policy. The recent chapter of the great job exodus is an advanced corollary of the Most Favored Nation status granted to China in 1999. US Congress has turned a blind eye to widespread Chinese copyright violations in software, books, and music. Their wages are at a mere 5% of our labor costs. The total lack of health care assistance and workmen compensation keeps labor costs low. US corporations have made colossal investments in China, all voluntary in nature, in order to attempt to capitalize on lower production costs. In the process, human rights and sweat shops are not the priority they once used to be. If the US ever imports human livers from China, perhaps renewed objections would surface.