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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (5552)	1/26/2004 2:37:27 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Hello ild, I consider myself a fair inspector of bubbles. China, the real economy, does not feel like a bubble to me, and even if it is a bubble, it is not so much a financial bubble as an infrastructure/industrialization boom. The difference is production vs. consumption. I am figuring that the boom will have its many pops, and each pop will merely give respite to the world, until the world needs something, anything, and the boom will hum to life once more. I take Heinz's comment regarding commodities simply as a fact that commodities are cyclical. My hesitation in totally agreeing with Heinz is simply that I do not see 'things' going down 'much' when fiat money is being piled onto the world by almost all central banking authorities. In a fiat flooded world, something will have to rise in value, and that something is never purchasing power; the something is often, at least some of the time, toilet paper, and other commodities. I have sold all except a index tracker fund in HK/China part of my portfolio. I think the HK/China financial market can use a rest, but I am expecting that rest to be triggered by a respite in the US, as opposed to a bubble-pricking spontaneously generated out of China. To me, the real exporter of deflation in this world is the US, flooding the world with cheap money, encouraging marginal investment projects and thus depressing returns, eventually impacting valuations. BurnAndKaput is trying to solve a cheap money problem with cheaper still money, leading us on to a road well travelled achamchen.com Chugs, Jay