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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (5556)1/20/2004 12:09:58 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
If they cut you will immediately see a 17BP jump just like Canada did today.
I am in futures, outright calls, and bull call spreads waiting for the inevitable (mad rush to global 0% rates)

M



To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (5556)1/20/2004 12:22:10 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
Now, darn Euro up 220 ticks: is this the sell the rumor, buy the news classical?
If Euro keeps rising into the meeting, rate cut would have more probability? Before or after the meeting?


Why does it matter?
Is Eruoland hiking no matter what the Euro does?
The March 05 Euribor is 97.34
If there is no cut or no hike it will tend towards 97.94 or so. That is 60 BPs (in euros) If they cut 1/4 add on another 25 BPs and if they cut 1/2 add on another 50.

Under any conceivable circumstances are they hiking?
M