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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (5587)	1/20/2004 3:29:31 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

disagree, Expl & Producers will not get slaughtered the smaller will thrive the larger will have trouble with profitability since they will pay up for the tiny successful E&P's the mediums will have some trouble, but only if they fail on the discovery end it aint that simple, Russ stocks will suffer in 6-12 months but not all energy plays will suffer the larger they are, the more production sits within their business model, which will cause damage these guys will have to hedge carefully but tiny E&P boys will thrive in a rising energy price environment sure, they will get smacked after they offer their investors a hefty 100-300% profit to grab and make secure I can live with that kind of whack I do NOT believe the consensus is expecting a higher price spike in natgas every successive winter, and a higher summertime trough every successive year Greenspasm may have uttered cautionary words on natgas but his words have been largely forgotten by the investment masses his new words "NO NEW INFLATION" and "BUBBLE WAS OVERCOME" and "NO REAL ESTATE BUBBLE VISIBLE" are all the rage resting in frontal lobes we will see an energy crisis before a monetary crisis it will serve as a grand prelude, an opening act unlike the gold and silver markets, we DO NOT have any overhang of futures contracts holding crude oil and natgas back with rising gold prices, we DID NOT see huge new supply hitting the market instead, we saw balance sheet erosion from covering hedgebooks this is the inelastic supply I wrote about with precmetals energy does not have an overhang of futures in hedgebooks so rising price will unleash new supply marginal properties will be developed, but they require time I do agree that some E&P's will have a hard time in quickly bringing new supply to market, which will adversely affect their rising stock prices, which will rise faster than justified they will need several months and more to deliver they must extend to existing pipelines, etc / jim