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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (45031)	1/21/2004 5:26:41 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 74559

Hello ACF Mike, Bora Bora log: Just hanging out today, and ... Pondering on you ... <<we ... expect the same scenario ... difference ... is only in the timing. ... the ultimate negative consequences more severe). ... The 2012-2027 Depression will be so bad that it is literally beyond belief from the cushy perspective of early 2004. ... gold ... I tend towards (1) but assign a non-trivial probability to (2)>> You are writing darkly :0) On gold, you must go against your first instinct, and struggle against our brain-washing by central bankers, for they mean us harm ;0) Chugs, Jay

To: AC Flyer who wrote (45031)	1/22/2004 1:22:51 AM
From: Gary H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

No such thing as "random walk". There is order in the Universe and man's action over time. It is men's minds who think they can out think the order of natural law and develop a random walk of easy misunderstanding. 321gold.com

To: AC Flyer who wrote (45031)	1/22/2004 3:10:10 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

<A large peak of immigration into the US around 1990. Since 1992, US immigration has been dramatically curtailed. > Gee ACF, you sound like a new, improved version of Jay, expecting a super-duper turbo-charged depression. Never mind the physical immigration to within the actual USA borders. Far more important is the immigration of vast numbers of people and their resources into the USA colonial system. Whether we are nominally called USA citizens or not is irrelevant. What matters is our economic position. Since 1990, I have become a USA economic citizen. Whether I live there or not is irrelevant. Our investments are in a USA company, which employs Indians in India, Chinese in China, and people around the world and which sells ASICs and stuff to companies and subscribers around the world. Nearly everyone around the world who has a computer uses Microsoft products. Coca Cola is pandemic. Big Macs are munched everywhere. USA corporations are all over the map. It really is a global village. The political distinctions are about as economically important as whether one lives in Escondido or San Diego. That's why the furore over Taiwan's independence is somewhat silly - they aren't independent of China and will no doubt become increasingly economically intertwined. Economic immigration to the USA is some 5 billion people. A few decades ago there were only several hundred million people intertwined with the USA. The economic system of billions of people is burgeoning. In the big picture, the Baby Boomer bulge is trivial. On gold, forget it. It's an anachronism which some fringe whacko perverts are having fun with. There are many cults and the gold worshippers are just another atavistic zero-sum game tribe clutching their medieval totem. Their life expectancy is better than the Hale-Bopp Nike-wearing cult, but similar in nature. Both options 1 and 2 are not going to happen. It's not cognitive dissonance you are experiencing. Your sense of reality is intact and matching what's happening out there. Your problem is your imagination of some 2010 bogeyman. So come on there mate. Get a grip. Take a deep breath. Ignore the doomsday soothsayers. Maybe there'll be a depression, but it'll come out of a clear blue sky as a mass MADness, not predictably a decade or so from now. The Malthusianists and Club of Rome doomsters thought they had their arithmetic right, but they were as wrong as wrong can be. The difference was the amazing prowess of the human mind. We aren't just mindless bunnies breeding like rabbits, eating ourselves out of house and home. Don't misunderestimate what we can do. A billion Chinese are coming out of their cage to lend a hand. A billion Indians are considering the idea. That's another 2 billion kilograms of brainpower - which is a lot of brainpower. Mqurice