BY JAMES TARANTO
Tuesday, January 20, 2004 3:17 p.m. EST
Bye-ku for Dick Gephardt
Whoops, I said Bush was
A miserable failure
Turns out I meant me
(Earlier bye-kus: Carol Moseley Braun, Yasuhiro Nakasone and Bob Graham.)
Iowa Gets Kerryed Away
Score one for slavish reliance on the polls. Before yesterday's Iowa caucuses, pundits were divided in their prognostications. Some, noting John Kerry's and John Edwards's late surges in opinion surveys, predicted a Kerry victory and a strong Edwards showing. Others said Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt had the edge, thanks to "better organization," including union support.
As it turned out, the polls were correct about the direction of the electorate, but vastly understated the magnitude of Kerry's and Edwards's rise. Kerry ended up winning, with 38% of the delegates, while Edwards finished a respectable second with 32%. Dean finished a distant third, with just 18%, and Gephardt's 11% showing rendered him an ex-candidate. (Joe Lieberman and Wesley Clark did not campaign in Iowa.)
All this may mean that the Democratic Party isn't as far gone as some of us had thought it was. Whatever his shortcomings, John Kerry is an adult, and unlike Howard Dean, it is possible to imagine him as president. This doesn't mean he'd have an easy time beating President Bush--the last Democratic nominee from Massachusetts carried only 10 states against the last Bush--but the likelihood of Bush winning a landslide re-election is certainly lower than it was 24 hours ago. And to be fair, Kerry is more lifelike than Michael Dukakis.
Some further thoughts on each of the remaining candidates:
Kerry. He's a winner right now, but if he doesn't finish first in New Hampshire, where polls have shown him battling Clark for second place behind Dean, he'll look weak a week from tomorrow. Not that this means anything, but the New York Times notes that Iowa and New Hampshire "have chosen different winners in all but 3 of the 13 competitive nominating contests since 1972." Another possible weakness is Kerry's thin skin. Remember this? Now that Kerry is a formidable candidate again, his opponents will begin sniping at him. Can he defend himself without looking like a wimp or a hothead?
Edwards. He doesn't have to do well in New Hampshire (though it would be a big help if he does), but South Carolina, which votes in two weeks, is absolutely crucial. Here Edwards should do well against Kerry. In the Palmetto State, as Michael Graham notes in National Review Online, "is assumed that people from Massachusetts are effete snobs who order their dinner in French with a haughty air." We couldn't have put it better, except we'd add that Kerry by the way served in Vietnam. But if Clark does well in New Hampshire, he could give Edwards a serious challenge in South Carolina, and Al Sharpton may be a factor too.
Dean. Iowa's biggest loser by far. Dick Gephardt went from underdog to ex-candidate, an honorable path countless politicians before him have traveled. Dean was the front-runner yesterday; today he looks as defeated as Saddam Hussein in his spider hole. More in the next item.
Clark. He could be the big beneficiary if Dean collapses in New Hampshire. Clark looks like a grown-up, but if you listen to what he says, he's even more of a lunatic than Dean--enough so to win the endorsements of such extremists as Michael Moore, George McGovern and Madonna. On the other hand, the diminutive doctor's drubbing in the Hawkeye State suggests that the Angry Left may be a far smaller force in the party than its sheer volubility would suggest.
Lieberman. He just seems doomed.
Kucinich. Believe it or not, he might have been a minor factor in Iowa. The Associated Press noted that Kucinich "agreed to ask supporters to swing behind Edwards in cases where they lacked the numbers to qualify for delegates." It's not clear how much of a boost this gave Edwards, but it seems a safe bet that this represents the pinnacle of Kucinich's political influence. We hope he stays in the race for entertainment value, though.
Sharpton. The last race hustler to run for president, Jesse Jackson in 1988, helped Michael Dukakis by eclipsing the young Al Gore in his native South, where blacks make up a huge share of the Democratic electorate. Outside New York Sharpton is less well-known than Jackson was, so it's far from guaranteed that he can duplicate this feat. But John Kerry certainly has reason to hope Sharpton does well in South Carolina.
Dean Decompensates
Last night's results carried an obvious lesson for Howard Dean: The Angry Left shtick has its limits. To put it kindly, Dean does not seem to have absorbed this quickly. Indeed, when he should have delivered a graceful concession speech, he went on a tirade instead and succeeded only in scaring the hell out of everyone. "At his post-caucus rally Monday night, Dr. Dean looked more like Howard Beale, the angry anchor in 'Network,' than 'Marcus Welby, M.D.,' " the New York Times observes dryly.
You really have to see it--or hear it--to believe it. The Drudge Report has a 13-second MP3 clip of Dean listing the various states where he plans to campaign, followed by a scream that Drudge transcribes as follows: "YAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!" FoxNews.com and the Times have video. And the Western Front blog links to an audio clip of professional wrestler Hulk Hogan, who sounds just like Dean.
(In fairness to Dean, we should note that it's possible he wasn't screaming at all but just speaking Estonian. According to InternationalSpecialReports.com, "The vowel-consonant rate in Estonian is 45 to 55, and the language boasts the world record for the most consecutively repeated vowel in a word. An outsider might think that someone paused to think with one finger on the letter ä on the keyboard, but to an Estonian the word jäääär means 'edge of the ice.' ")
"Dean SNAPS!! On Foxnews!!!" reads the title to a discussion thread on the right-wing FreeRepublic Web site. Remarkably enough, almost identical sentiments are on display in a thread on the left-wing DemocratsUnderground: "Woh [sic], Dean's freaking out on CNN...." Scroll down in the thread and you find lots of messages from Clark supporters, further evidence that with Dean's implosion, he is emerging as the candidate of the Angry Left.
We Can't Wait Till He Tries to Mess With Texas
"Dean Vows to Fight Every State"--headline, AlJazeera.net, Jan. 20
Who Knew?
"Survey: Iowa Democrats Want Man Who Can Beat Bush"--headline, Reuters, Jan. 19
Recess Appointments, in Black and White
Yesterday we noted that a New York Times editorial had blasted President Bush for elevating Judge Charles Pickering to the appellate bench after Democratic senators refused to allow his confirmation to come to a vote. The Times called the appointment "lamentable" because it "avoids the confirmation process."
An alert reader notes that on Jan. 2, 2001, a Times editorial praised President Clinton, by then a lame duck, for doing exactly the same thing when then-Sen. Jesse Helms blocked one of his appointees:
By appointing Roger Gregory to the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit while Congress is in recess, President Clinton rightly moved to address two related problems--the shameful failure to integrate that appeals court and the refusal by Congress to consider judicial nominees with reasonable dispatch.
Because a recess appointee to the lifetime position can serve for only a year absent Congressional confirmation, Mr. Clinton has also posed a thorny political dilemma for Congressional Republicans and George Bush's nominee for attorney general, Senator John Ashcroft. Both are already under fire for keeping black nominees off the federal bench.
If it's so important to get black judges on the bench, maybe the Times should urge President Bush to give a recess appointment to Justice Janice Rogers Brown of the California Supreme Court, whose nomination to the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit the Dems are also blocking. (It's possible Bush has offered her such an appointment and she's turned it down.) But in an editorial on Oct. 25, 2003, the Times denounced Brown as "out of the mainstream." So the Times' view on judicial appointments seems to be that black nominees deserve special treatment, but only if they think in lockstep.
Who's Acting Unilaterally?
"Eager Japanese troops quickly launched into their historic mission in Iraq Tuesday, visiting the site of their proposed camp and waving politely as they were cheered by delighted Iraqi onlookers," Reuters reports from Samawa, Iraq.
Tough Shiite, Saddam
"Thousands of Shiite Muslims marched through Baghdad on Tuesday, clamoring for Saddam Hussein's execution in the latest show of strength by a community repressed for decades by the former dictator," the Associated Press reports from the Iraqi capital.
The Shiites are angry about the U.S. decision to accord Saddam prisoner-of-war status, though on legal grounds that probably was the right decision. In any case, Saddam can in due course be repatriated to Iraq, put on trial and killed. Samira Hassan, a 43-year-old resident of the Sard City neighborhood, tells the AP: "Every good Muslim woman and every honest human being wants Saddam to be executed." Weasels of the world, take note.
Weasel Watch
In Strasbourg, France, a van used as a school bus by a Jewish school "has been firebombed in what a community leader has called an apparent anti-Semitic attack," Reuters reports.
Oh well, at least the French take some crimes seriously. Agence France-Presse reports that an 82-year-old French priest has been fined 800 euros, or nearly $1,000, "for uttering derogatory remarks about the Holy Quran."
Jimmy Carter's Pals
During the Korean War, Pfc. Jun Yong-il, a soldier in the South Korean army, was taken prisoner by North Korea. He escaped captivity and made it back to South Korea, where he was promoted to staff sergeant and discharged from the army.
Here's what makes this story interesting: Jun was captured in July 1953. He returned home last month. He is 72 years old and was 21 or 22 when his captivity began.
Zero-Tolerance Watch
Sixteen-year-old Michael Todd of Magnolia, Texas, was jailed for four days in a "juvenile facility" for using an asthma inhaler at school, Houston's KTRK-TV reports:
A doctor-prescribed inhaler he uses for his asthma got him there. The Magnolia High School student exhaled a puff of the medicine close to a teacher. The teacher had a reaction and had to see a doctor.
"I wasn't trying to harm the teacher or anything. It just happened kind of like accidental," said Todd. "I wasn't really trying to hurt anybody or nothing."
School officials called the cops, who charged Todd with "deadly contact."
The Davis (Calif.) Enterprise reports that Howard Liston, an 18-year-old student at Davis High School, was arrested last week "for possession of a firearm at school." The 12-gauge shotgun was in the cab of the young man's pickup truck:
Steven Sabbadini, a lawyer representing Liston, said the teenager had bought the shotgun for his 18th birthday. A member of a local shooting range, Liston has taken hunter safety classes and has hunted and engaged in target practice with family and friends for years, Sabbadini said.
"On Wednesday, (Liston) completed his classes at noon, went home to change with the intent of taking his new shotgun to the range for target practice before going to work," Sabbadini said today. "He decided to have lunch with friends. After lunch, he dropped his friends off at the Davis High School parking lot
"He was only in the parking lot momentarily on the way to target practice," the attorney added. "His shotgun was in his gun rack, unloaded and being transported lawfully. The shells to the shotgun were locked in a utility box in the bed of his truck."
The next day, he absentmindedly left the gun in the truck. Though the firearm was unloaded and the truck was locked, the school called the cops, and Liston now faces expulsion and possibly a fine or imprisonment for violating the Golden State's kooky antigun laws.
The Belleville (Ill.) News-Democrat reports that James Lord, a 17-year-old senior at Dupo High School, "was kicked off a school broadcast program because he signed off with God bless.' " The paper says that "school Principal Jonathan Heerboth has said Lord's comment was inappropriate for public school." Remember this the next time you hear some civil libertarian complaining about the "stifling of dissent."
Didn't We Already Beat Them?
"I think the new initiative is driven by a desire to beat the Chinese to the moon."--John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org, "a defense and space policy research group," quoted by Reuters, Jan. 18
What Would the Housing Market Do Without Experts?
"Housing Market to Keep Growing, or Maybe Slow Down, Experts Say"--headline, Middle East North Africa Financial Network, Jan. 19
If Only They'd Done It Right
"Botched Exorcism Suspected in Child's Death"--headline, FoxNews.com, Jan. 19
Taxman Meets Grim Reaper
One of life's inevitabilities caught up last week with a man who had made a career of the other one, but no one noticed for two days, the BBC reports:
A tax office official in Finland who died at his desk went unnoticed by up to 30 colleagues for two days.
The man in his 60s died last Tuesday while checking tax returns, but no-one realised he was dead until Thursday.
A Finnish newspaper reported that "co-workers had assumed the dead man--a tax auditor--was silently poring over returns." Alas, for him there will be no more returns, happy or otherwise.
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