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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patricia Trinchero who wrote (526978)	1/21/2004 12:43:02 PM
From: PartyTime	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 769670

Like many, my early thinking was that was Dean would win NH hands down. However, it's quite clear the media has turned into chopping up Dean and there now appears a quasi-annointing of Kerry, much to Clark's chagrin. But aside from the media's treatment of Dean, Kerry must be credited with what he pulled off. In order for Kerry to have done what he did in Iowa two things were needed: a) the media had to cut into Dean's premature pedestal; and, b) Kerry had to make very strong and lasting impressions during his campaign stops where he met the voters, this while using his money effectively to organize his base of support. As I know New Hampshire--and I know it reasonably well having been born and raised there--Kerry's not holding any negatives and never has. Neither has Dean. However, the perception that rules the day is who is best able to defeat Bush. On this question Kerry seems to play better than Dean, especially since it seems the media is doing this for Kerry. For me, the strength and credibility of a candidate is how he or she performs when under the scrutiny of question and answer sessions from audiences which are not pre-arranged. On this, I think Dean does better than Kerry. But Kerry is good at this also. As to who delivers the best speech? I think Kerry is stronger and presents a more presidential image than does Dean. By the way, Kerry especially exhibits a far stronger presidential image than does Bush who often appears sophmoric. Bush is a groomed and manufactured-like candidate, one who pretty much appears only before designed and calculated audiences and deals with only softball-like questions. There's nothing grassroots about him, except the extent to which he panders to his Christrian Right base which will never ask him a tough question. Moreover, Bush can't think on his feet, he doesn't communicate as well as either Dean or Kerry. But you asked me about the NH Primary, not about Bush. I think we both know well enough where Bush's head is at, and where it isn't. Here's what I predict will happen in the NH Primary: 1) Kerry wins but not by as much as he'd like. I have a feeling he's going to draw from Kucinich supporters, he'll grab some Dean folks and get some of the Gephardt package--this combined with independents who'll realize that Kerry has a shot at defeating Bush. Together, this will create a surge strong enough for him to easily win, but not by much. Kerry will be perceived as one with vision. 2) Dean will come in second, as many who are loyal to him will reaffirm the reasons why they are so, and these voters will realize that the media has been unfairly picking on him. Dean will be perceived as one with a workable program. 3) Edwards will be third because voters see him as likeable and he'll also get some of the Gephardt voters looking for a place to go. Edwards will be perceived as the one with the best shot at getting the VP and, thus, he'll get some votes for this reason--especially by people who can live with either Dean or Kerry. 4) Clark will finish fourth. Although a wise decision to skip Iowa, this only worked if Dean had won Iowa. Kerry winning and Edwards finishing second was the worst-case scenario for Clark. Although he's got some seasoned Clinton operatives behind him, I don't think this will be enough for him to overtake the now perceived vision thing that Kerry is now sporting. Clark's only hope is to take advantage of southern support during Super Tuesday--but does he have the money to pull this off? Doubtful. 5) Leiberman will finally realize he never should have been in the race to begin with. His support will likely go to Clark or Edwards. 6) Kucinich probably should drop out tomorrow and back Dean. Maybe he will. 7) Sharpton, as he should, will continue slapping the donkey. And I do hope he slaps it all the way to the convention where he'll likely deliver a spectacular speech, much like Jesse Jackson's of past years. Although it's extremely difficult for Sharpton to get votes, I think generally everyone loves what he's doing. I agree with him that the donkey needs slapping until Bush gets out of the White House! So, Patricia, that's my predicted order of finish and some of the reasons why I think it'll happen. Now, were I voting in the NH primary who would be my pick? I'd probably vote for Sharpton so as to help him keep on slapping the donkey--lol!