Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (45048)	1/21/2004 6:34:00 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

>> told DJ Russia will join the EU. One of the reason being the end of the oil of the N. Sea<< So you think that may be the reason for US to join Iraq;P... Maybe they should start with[] ... Canada?! dj [] Here you should imagine the Church lady with her "Could it be ... Satan?!"

To: elmatador who wrote (45048)	1/21/2004 7:08:03 AM
From: maceng2	Respond to of 74559

Air fare rise keeps inflation grounded Jan 21 2004 icbirmingham.icnetwork.co.uk By Nevill Boyd Maunsell Cut-price air fares had the bizarre effect of holding new-style inflation well below Chancellor Gordon Brown's new two per cent target last month, while the old measure of inflation crept back up above his old 2.5 per cent target. Air fares rose in December as they always do, but by less than in December, 2002, this had the effect of dampening down the new-style consumer prices index to leave its version of inflation at 1.3 per cent despite rising prices for clothing and food. This statistical trade-off did not affect the long-running retail prices index - which started logging air fares only last January --with the result that it jumped to 2.8 per cent from 2.5 per cent in November. This was also boosted by higher mortgage interest arising from the Bank of England's quarter-point increase in official interest rates to 3.75 per cent in November. The RPI is still watched closely by wage negotiators and remains the basis for many inflationlinked state benefits. The December index figure is used to fix the annual increases of many occupational pension schemes. Not counting mortgage interest, the RPI edged up to 2.6 per cent from 2.5 per cent last month. This was the basis of Mr Brown's previous 2.5 per cent inflation target. This December's Christmas shopping season saw smaller price cuts for women's and children's clothes, as well as in some toys and gains, National Statistics said. This had the effect of pushing both versions of inflation higher. Motoring had a similar effect because falls in the price of both petrol and second-hand cars in December, 2002, were not repeated. In the opposite direction, the traditional December price increases for furniture - ahead of the cuts in the January sales - were weaker than usual this time. City economists were divided on the implications of yesterday's numbers for prospects of another interest rate increase next month. David Page, economist at stockbrokers Investec, said "If those figures are strong enough to convince the Bank that the economy is growing at a fast enough pace to warrant another rate hike then the CPI figures won't stop them." HSBC economist John Butler said the Bank was likely to raise interest rates if it believes sterling will weaken, the global economy will continue to improve and there is very little spare capacity in the UK economy. "It's going to be a close call but on balance I think they will go (with a rate rise)," he said. The CPI, which differs from the old RPI because it takes no account of council tax or other costs of home ownership, was last lower in June when its version of year-on-year inflation fell to 1.1 per cent. But its measure of the rate at which the cost of services is rising fell back sharply last month to 2.8 per cent, down from 3.2 per cent in the year to November and less than at any time since this index was started in 19997. Meantime, prices of goods fell by only 0.1 per cent in the 12 months to December, after 0.3 per cent in January, the smallest decline since a break-even recorded in July, 1999. l Chancellor Gordon Brown's economic "golden rule" could be under threat unless tax revenues pick up, MPs have warned. Following the £10 billion increase in Government borrowing announced by Mr Brown in last month's Pre-Budget Report, the Commons Treasury Committee said there was "very little further room for any further slippage in the fiscal arithmetic". Under the "golden rule" --intended to reassure the City that the Government is handling public finances responsibly - Mr Brown is supposed to balance the budget over the course of the economic cycle. However, a report by the committee warned that if the shortfall in expected tax receipts over the past three years continued, Mr Brown could be in danger of breaking his own rule. If tax revenues continue to come in below forecast, it would mean the Chancellor would have to raise taxes or cut public spending if he wanted to keep to his rule. With tax receipts in the current financial year expected to be £5.5 billion less than forecast at the time of the Budget in April, the committee urged the Treasury to follow the example of the US and launch an investigation into why the tax take has declined. [I think "the committee" should all be fired for asking such a dumb question. The standard answer to all Britains problems seem to be some 20 20 hindsight investigation so the finger can be pointed. I know the answer already, so do most of people in Britain. An increasing portion of people are state employees too]