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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (5707)	1/21/2004 4:56:18 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

Harmy to Mish on Canada cut (note: he lives down under) ============================================================ Mish So this puts even more pressure on the AUD which even now is more than double that of Canada. Plunger may be right about no more hikes down here but we still have an overheated housing market and with people carrying more debt than ever. The RB is caught between the devil and the deep. Strong booming economy, unemployment falling and interest rates which still don't appear to be slowing down the housing market to any great extent. Another hike will be even more detrimental to the dollar and yet a fall in rates will simply let the housing market off the hook. Hard to pick what will happen next. Regards Harmy ================================================= mish replies: Harmy, Please please keep us posted on this. I am very much into interest rate rotation plays. I move a lot from Eurodollars into Euribor and a little into Canada. If we can call a top in Aussie or the UK there will be a ton of $ to be made. I hope they hold off or even hike. PS I hope you get into this with Plunger and I but even if not, keep us posted on your thoughts. Thanks Mish

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (5707)	1/22/2004 2:01:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 110194

Darfot, fact is that statistics in the US are improving from housing starts to unemployment (never mind they are low paying jobs) if compared to Germany for example who have more unemployed people than the US at a time they are 1/4 of US population. Their government trumpeted today that they "hope/expect" to generate 100,000 jobs in 2004 lowering the # of those not working from 4.3 million to 4.2 Similar situation in France. Italy just had their lowest consumer confidence in 10 years today - never mind that the EUR is going to the sky. It is to bad that CNBC Europe is not in the US you will realize then that our mediocre politicians are geniuses compared to the Europeans