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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (5729)	1/22/2004 12:49:33 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

These numbers I pay attention to: Please note that they have grown loans pretty aggressively. This growth should suppress the relative number (percentage) of loans in default (it takes time to default). Also this happened with houses still appreciating. I agree that if RE keep appreciating MI companies will be fine. But if you consider a case where RE falters... ...............................................December 31 December 31 ............................................... 2003 2002 Direct primary insurance in force ($millions) 119,887 110,273 Direct primary risk in force ($millions) 27,106 26,273 GSE pool risk in force ($millions) 1,393 1,218 Total pool risk in force ($millions) 2,415 1,732 Other risk in force ($millions) 1,053 463 Primary insurance: Prime Number of insured loans 640,778 698,910 Number of loans in default 22,156 21,483 Percentage of loans in default 3.46% 3.07% Non-prime Alt A Number of insured loans 138,571 102,839 Number of loans in default 7,343 5,300 Percentage of loans in default 5.30% 5.15% A minus and below Number of insured loans 110,054 79,871 Number of loans in default 12,497 9,005 Percentage of loans in default 11.36% 11.27% Total prime and non-prime Number of insured loans 889,403 881,620 Number of loans in default 41,996 35,788 Percentage of loans in default 4.72% 4.06%