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Politics : HOWARD DEAN -THE NEXT PRESIDENT? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: calgal who wrote (2307)1/22/2004 1:37:50 AM
From: calgal  Respond to of 3079
 
Paul Greenberg
The revealing results in Iowa
newsandopinion.com | The big loser in Iowa wasn't Howard Dean. It was the whole collection of pundits, pollsters and general pontificators who patiently explained to us laymen that he had already won the famous Invisible Primary. That's the one that takes place before a single vote is cast in the primaries, or a single delegate elected in the Iowa caucuses. It's apparently conducted exclusively in The New York Times.
Ah, yes, the legendary Invisible Primary, and I do mean legendary now that Iowa has spoken. The Invisible Primary, we innocents were told, is determined by the amount of money raised, organization put in place and buzz generated.

Thanks to the Internet and a children's crusade unmatched since Gene McCarthy's day, Howard Dean may already have been the winner! As in the Publishers Clearing House Sweepstakes. Never mind that the winner of the Invisible Primary proved barely visible in Iowa.

The results of the caucuses in that prototypical Midwestern state may not matter much in the long run or even the short, but they were revealing in more than a political way. Especially the concession speeches.

For who remembers victory speeches? They all seem the same - memorable only when they're particularly graceless. Like Ted Kennedy's at John Kerry's side Monday night. He was big, boisterous and blustery as ever, and, as ever, accompanied by his ever faithful, invisible companion, the shade of Mary Jo Kopechne. And he was never more Teddy. He sounded as if he were campaigning in South Boston instead of declaring victory in Des Moines. There's nothing like a fiery speech from Teddy Kennedy to turn a victory party into a Last Hurrah. John Kerry also spoke.

It was the concession speeches that, as always, revealed character. Or the lack of it. Wasn't Howard Dean awful? Having lost in Iowa, he'd clearly decided that the best thing to do was pretend he'd won.

The voters having just gone for thoughtful, positive appeals, Howard Dean chose to jump and shout and generally prance about. It hurt to watch.

My old friend Tucker Carlson, a lapsed newspaperman who's now become a television charmer, says it looked as if the candidate was about to burst through the television and bite the viewer. I have to admit I did cower a bit watching Dr. Dean turn into Mr. Hyde.

Once again I miss Adlai Stevenson, whose concession in 1952 outshone any victory speech we've ever heard. ("Someone asked me, as I came in the door, down on the street, how I felt, and I was reminded of a story that a fellow townsman of ours used to tell - Abraham Lincoln. He said he felt like a little boy who had stubbed his toe in the dark. He said that he was too old to cry, but it hurt too much to laugh.") He was grace and candor and good humor personified, at least in his first try for the White House, before the professional speechwriters got to him.

Dick Gephardt is scarcely Adlai Stevenson, but Monday night he seemed the best Dick Gephardt could be. Each time he loses, he wins something greater than an election: He grows in stature. He acquires a new measure of dignity, a deeper loyalty to his blue-collar, union roots.

Maybe it was just the relief at realizing Monday night that the danger of his outdated, build-a-wall-around-America economics had passed for the moment, but I'd never felt such affection and admiration for the man. He makes a great loser, which is no small thing in a society addicted to cheap victories for no clear purpose.

John Edwards was another big winner Monday night, too, maybe the biggest because he had the furthest to go. His surprise showing shouldn't have been a surprise. Whenever the Democratic Party feels at a loss, it tends to turn to nice young Southern candidates - or candidates who seem to be. Even if, in office, they turn out to be incompetents or scamps or both. See Jimmy Carter, our most successful ex-president, and Bill Clinton, who turned out to be Bill Clinton.

Waiting the winners in the snows of the Granite State is Wesley Clark, who's already started sniping at Senator Kerry. The general was supposed to emerge as the anti-Dean candidate in New Hampshire and, soon enough, South Carolina. But what happens if there's not much of a Dean to emerge against? Here the Clark campaign has put its artillery in place, and the guns are pointed in the wrong direction. It all ought to be interesting and, like Iowa's choices, revealing.

Little as it may mean, Iowa's moment in the electoral sun has shed some light for all of us. Not just because all those nice, corn-fed Iowans put the pundits in their low place, but because Iowa also showed just how much prestigious endorsements are worth in a presidential race. Al Gore, Tom Harkin, Carol Moseley Braun . . . they all jumped on the Dean bandwagon just in time for it to break down.

You've got to admire and respect those folks in Iowa. They could have done a lot worse - and have in the past. Remember Jimmy Carter, painful as it is to recall his presidency? And Bush 41? He came out of the Iowa caucuses proclaiming that he had the momentum in 1980, only to watch Big Mo swing to Ronald Reagan, thank goodness. Americans love New Beginnings, which is why we'd advise the other candidates not to underestimate John Edwards.

Iowa, I salute you. You've chosen character, or at least the hope of it, over glitz and bluster. Or as Melvyn Douglas as the Old Man - one of my favorite movie characters - says in "Hud": "Little by little, the look of the country changes because of the men we admire."



To: calgal who wrote (2307)1/22/2004 1:38:14 AM
From: calgal  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3079
 
Democratic Candidates Regroup for N.H.
By RON FOURNIER, AP Political Writer
MANCHESTER, N.H. - The Democratic presidential candidates are putting the Iowa caucuses behind them and retooling their campaigns in an appeal to the independent voters of New Hampshire.

AP Photo

Reuters
Slideshow: Elections

AP Campaign Video Roundup
(AP Video)

Latest headlines:
· Powell Rebukes Dems for Criticizing Bush
AP - 16 minutes ago

· Sen. Edwards Sells Upbeat Message, Memo Leaks
Reuters - 25 minutes ago

· Democratic Candidates Regroup for N.H.
AP - 29 minutes ago

Special Coverage

The White House hopefuls also are making decisions on the fly about the vital next stage of the campaign — a spate of February elections in 17 states and the District of Columbia, starting Feb. 3.

And they're doing all this without the presence of Dick Gephardt (news - web sites), bounced from the field after an Iowa caucus contest that has candidates thinking twice about going negative in the fast-shifting race headed toward the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.

"Everything has changed since Iowa," said Joe Trippi, campaign manager for Howard Dean (news - web sites). "It always does."

The change starts with the voters themselves. Only registered Democrats were allowed to vote in Iowa, and few independents took advantage of rules allowing on-the-spot registration. But New Hampshire has a history of crossover voting.

In 2000, about 40 percent of voters in both the Republican and Democratic primaries identified themselves in exit polls as independents. Bill Bradley (news - web sites) defeated Al Gore (news - web sites), 55-43 percent, among independents on the Democratic side; Republican John McCain swamped George W. Bush, 61-19 percent, on his way to a landslide victory over the future president.

Echoes of that GOP race reverberate this year in New Hampshire, where private campaign polls suggest Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) of Massachusetts, winner of Monday's caucuses, has surged to a slight lead over Dean.

Reeling from his distant third-place Iowa finish, Dean is telling New Hampshire voters that he is the one candidate who has produced reforms, instead of just talking about them. Bush used a similar strategy to salvage his campaign after the 2000 New Hampshire primary, calling himself a "reformer with results" as Texas' governor.

In a nod to McCain, who made campaign finance reform the centerpiece of his 2000 bid, Dean will offer a proposal Thursday to lower the limit of individual campaign contributions.

He also will spend tens of thousands of dollars on TV, radio and mailings to promote himself as a politician willing to take unpopular stands, such as opposing the Iraq (news - web sites) war and backing civil unions in Vermont.

Sen. Joe Lieberman (news - web sites) of Connecticut has touted his ability to draw former McCain backers to his campaign.

Kerry cast his prescription drug plan Wednesday as a sign that he's "willing to take on the powerful special interests in Washington."

The shift drew a word of caution from state Democratic chairwoman Kathleen Sullivan.

"There's a problem with tailoring a message that just appeals to independents, because they've got to get Democratic rank-and-file to vote, too," she said.

They also must look beyond New Hampshire to Feb. 3, when seven states hold contests from South Carolina to Arizona and as far north as Delaware. That next stage poses a problem for Kerry, who pulled staff out of the Feb. 3 states to save his sagging campaign in Iowa. He also had money problems, which kept his ads off TV while retired rival Wesley Clark (news - web sites), Sen. John Edwards (news - web sites) of North Carolina, Dean and Lieberman spent millions of dollars in the seven states.

Kerry borrowed money against his family fortune, but needs more. He has asked supporters to donate $1 million between the Iowa and New Hampshire elections.

Even Dean, the race's top fund-raiser, would be forced to trim his Feb. 3 ad plans if he doesn't get the money and momentum he needs out of New Hampshire. "The calendar moves so fast, and there's so many states coming," Trippi said. "We have more money than all those folks, but we don't have more than all of them combined."

Clark is airing ads in five Feb. 3 states, Lieberman in four, Dean in three and Edwards in two.

No decisions will be made until this weekend — and some may wait until Tuesday night — but aides say Kerry will try to cherry-pick delegates with a small investment in some states while playing for victory in a couple others.

Oklahoma is not a good state for him, but Arizona and South Carolina are full of fellow military veterans.

Kerry will stake a claim to Michigan, site of a Feb. 7 primary. One of his top strategists, Jill Alper, left Iowa this week for Michigan to oversee his team. Alper has worked for Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, who is thought to be leaning toward endorsing Kerry.

Edwards' focus is South Carolina and Oklahoma. Clark, who skipped Iowa and is nipping on Dean's heels here, is sticking to a multistate strategy that has him airing ads in three February-voting states without competition from his rivals — Virginia, Tennessee and Wisconsin

Gephardt's departure put the Feb. 3 primary of his home state of Missouri into play, an expensive proposition. His negative ad in Iowa, which helped sink his and Dean's poll ratings, may have had an impact on the New Hampshire race.

Kerry's advisers had prepared ads criticizing his rivals, but the attacks were tabled — for now, in part, aides said, because his poll numbers are rising without taking the risk of tearing down his rivals.

Instead, Kerry's latest ad stresses his experience, integrity and record of fighting special interests — a faint echo of McCain's appeal to independents.



To: calgal who wrote (2307)1/22/2004 9:13:11 PM
From: calgal  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3079
 
January 22, 2004, 8:49 a.m.
Davos Journal, Part I

Friends, I'm writing you from the village of Davos, in Switzerland, where the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum is being held. I will report for the next few days, mixing items of some moment with items of a light nature. (How does that differ from the normal Impromptus, huh?)











Anyone and everyone is here, as is always the case. You have your heads of state: Abdullah, Klaus, Kwasniewski, Musharraf, Khatami, Erdogan. You have a slew of foreign ministers, and other ministers. U.S. Cabinet members include Ashcroft and Evans (Vice President Cheney will also show.) You have thinkers, deep and allegedly so (I don't think I'll venture a list). You have noted novelists like Ishiguro, Gordimer, Wiesel, and Theroux. (Granted, these folks — certainly Theroux and Wiesel — write more than novels.) You got a smattering of Hollywood types (Richard Gere, Julia Ormond, Ron Silver). You have musicians, for instance Quincy Jones and Valery Gergiev (since when have they been paired?).

And you have an assortment of wild cards, including — oh — Vladimir Pozner, the once-famous spokesman for the once-famous Soviet government. He may be holding forth next to a human-rights hero. Such is the world now.

Ah, I should have mentioned the businessmen, since this is the World Economic Forum: Bill Gates, Michael Dell, Carly Fiorina — all the heavy hitters. About them, I'll say more in due course.

Every year, the Forum publishes a book of participants — there are some 2,100 this year, from 94 countries — with bios and photos of everyone. It's really a rather fascinating book. Bill Clinton said in his lunchtime lecture on Wednesday (I paraphrase), "I want to come to Davos every year just to get that book. I love flipping through it." He has a point.

Davos, to refresh your memory (I did a four-parter on the '03 Meeting a year ago), is the village in which Thomas Mann's Magic Mountain takes place. This is, indeed, the home of the Zauberberg (on which I've stayed — not that any literary inspiration flowed from it, to me). This is also the region of Heidi, the little girl famous for interrupting a football game. Davos is almost indescribably beautiful, "snowbound," as all the journalists write, as pretty as a picture-postcard, or one of those shake-up globes. The trees and châlets are encased in snow, and it seems almost an Epcot — an idealized — presentation of an Alpine hamlet. The views of Davos are so beautiful that one hotel is called Belvedere, another is called Bella Vista, one is called Bellevue, and so on — it all means the same thing, that this place is something to look at (to put it mildly).

There is, as always, a great variety of panels — of sessions, lunches, dinners, and other gatherings — and signing up for them is rather like signing up for your university classes: You can't take everything, and three things that capture your fancy may take place at the same time. You just have to bite the bullet and choose.

The Meeting is supposed to have gone informal this year, with men forbidden to wear ties. In fact, the main hall — the Congress Center — has been declared a tie-free zone. Signs, featuring a tie with a stern line through it, reinforce the point. Each man who wears a tie into the Center has to pay a fine of five Swiss francs, to be sent to Unicef. By the look of it, Unicef will make out pretty well. Old habits die hard, and some men feel naked without their ties. A few of them look it, too.

A panel on Iraq is hosted by the Washington Post columnist David Ignatius, and features Jack Straw, the foreign secretary of the U.K., with Olivier Roy (of the Centre de la Recherche Scientifique) and Alyson Bailes (of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) commenting. I will relay a few points of interest.

Roy is asked to say something about Grand Ayatollah Sistani, leader of the Shiites. He notes that Sistani lived under Saddam Hussein for 30 years and managed not to be killed, so "he must be a cautious man" — a true insight. Roy relates that Sistani is in close touch with the mullahs of Iran, but that he supports the separation of church and state. "He wants democracy — one man, one vote — and the Americans can't oppose that."

As for Jack Straw, he makes a striking impression. The session begins at 10:45, but Tony Blair's minister is not there. David Ignatius announces that he's expected at 11:05. Straw actually arrives at 10:55. The moderator points out that the minister is ahead of schedule, whereupon Straw quips, "Do you want me to go?" So many of the British seem to have quickness and charm in their blood. One does not have to be an Anglophile to recognize this simple fact of life.

When it's time to make his prepared remarks, Straw says, "As an adherent to the British parliamentary tradition, I find it physiologically difficult to sit and speak at the same time" — but he does so anyway. What he does is deliver a powerful defense of the Coalition invasion and occupation of Iraq. He gives a defiantly upbeat report on the situation now: the Iraqi police is being firmed up; 70 million revised (i.e., de-Saddamized) textbooks have been distributed; vaccines have been made available; electricity and water are improving; etc., etc.

Straw notes that Iraq has established a currency and a central bank with remarkable speed, but that the press has not taken notice — a well-placed shot. He tells his listeners that they have no idea of the "extravagances" in which Saddam and his "ruling clique" indulged — the palaces boggle the mind. The plunder of the Iraqi people wounds the heart.

Also, Iraqis, during the long Baathist tyranny, were kept in deplorable ignorance. But now they have satellite dishes, which were banned under Saddam, and about 200 newspapers, and unfettered access to the Internet — also banned under Saddam. (Banned in Castro's Cuba, too, by the way. That is not a datum you're apt to learn in our media.)

The foreign secretary reminds his audience that Saddam Hussein had violated no fewer than 17 U.N. agreements, and that the U.N. had 173 pages' worth of WMD concerns. He says — as before, I will paraphrase — "I respect the views of those who disagreed with our action in Iraq. But I would ask them to look back and consider what the situation would be if we had allowed Saddam to continue to defy the U.N. I submit that if we had sat on our hands and not acted, the world today would be a much more dangerous place."

Someone asks whether Iraq will have to be split apart, given the inharmonious peoples. He responds that the territorial integrity of Iraq must be "absolute," and points out that we are in a country — Switzerland — that is "highly federated" but "still unified." He also cites Belgium, with its different regions and tongues — "so these models exist."

Secretary Straw is sort of needled about Iraq contracts flowing to U.S. companies. He says something arresting, from a foreign official: Again, paraphrasing, "The U.S. taxpayer has put an astonishing amount of money in Iraq, through Congress — and that's democracy, by the way. It's only natural that they should want some of the money to come back to American firms. But plenty of subcontracts are going to other Coalition partners. I applaud the astounding generosity of the American people, and I would remind you that the ultimate benefit, of course, accrues to the people of Iraq."

You can live for many days — or years or decades — and not hear such an evaluation of the American people from any foreign leader.

Olivier Roy interjects that it has been demonstrated that Saddam had no weapons of mass destruction and no link to al Qaeda — therefore, the only reason to have gone into Iraq was to build a stable democracy, and that the Coalition is doing badly.

Straw does not sit on his hands. He again refers to those 173 pages, in which was mentioned "the strong presumption" — the U.N.'s words — that the regime harbored 10,000 liters of anthrax. "Were we to do nothing?" asks Straw. "Nothing?" It is probably the most dramatic moment of the session.

The secretary adds that he has never claimed a link between Saddam and al-Qaeda — although Saddam had his hands in terror generally (e.g., in the Intifada). (I myself always like to point out that Saddam, after all, gave refuge to Abu Abbas — the Achille Lauro mastermind — and Abu Nidal, an Arab Carlos the Jackal, whom Saddam, in all likelihood, wound up killing, for reasons that make for interesting speculation.)

Straw robustly defends our democracy-building efforts in Iraq, then goes on to sing an ode to democracy at large. He comes from a party, he says, "that lost four elections on the trot" (a wonderful Britishism for "in a row"). "We won the last two. That's called democracy, and sometimes the side you favor doesn't win."

He also explains that he doesn't especially mind religious parties, which dot Europe (even if they do not tend to be especially religious — think the Christian Democrats, in any country). When an Islamic party in Turkey won power, there was "shock, horror," but everyone now agrees that that government is "a delight to do business with."

A questioner notes that all of the experts on an earlier panel — all of them, to a man — averred that the Iraq campaign had made the War on Terror harder. Straw snorts this claim out of school, pointing out that, at a minimum, the Coalition has removed Afghanistan and Iraq from the terror business, and can that be counted as nothing?

Another questioner alleges that Britain et al. are "cooking the books" in Iraq — placing their thumbs heavily on any electoral scale. Straw himself describes this as a charge of "a stitch-up job," then knocks it down, in no uncertain terms. He again avows his special love of democracy: "I have been democratically elected to public office. Who else in this room can say the same? Let me see hands, please. One? Fine. But I don't care to take lectures on democracy and democratic legitimacy. Elective office in a democracy has been my life." What's more, "'legitimacy' is an easy word to mouth, but those who question our methods in Iraq should be asked, 'What would you do that would be an improvement on what we're doing?'"

That is a question that tends to shut mouths.

A Turkish participant expresses concern that the Kurds are feeling their oats (so to speak), and cites at least one Kurd who has made loud independence noises. Straw (in paraphrase): "People will take positions, 'twas ever thus. But when Saddam Hussein was in power, people could not take positions, lest they be killed. True, we've found fewer WMD than expected, but we've found more mass graves. And now, people don't get shot for expressing their opinion."

Another participant chides Secretary Straw for putting the judiciary last in his list of recent Iraqi accomplishments. Obviously, says this man, the government of the U.K. can't care terribly much about the rule of law. Straw, barely patient, responds that he put the judiciary last because it's most important, not least, "and I say this as a lawyer."

So that's that.

I have gone on about this performance simply because it's not the kind I am accustomed to witnessing. Certainly we don't often see such things at international conferences, including the Davos Forum. Straw was commanding, unflinching, persuasive, affable, willing, and factual. He was informed to the gills. He proved a superb explainer/defender of all that we are doing, and have done, and will do in Iraq. I dare say that no American official has performed as well — certainly not Straw's counterpart, Colin Powell. How much good it would do, around the world and at home, for Powell to make such efforts, with such conviction and knowledge! My suspicion is that most people would come around to the Coalition point of view — or at least not be hostile to it — if it were explained sufficiently well. This has been a failure of the post-9/11 period. But Jack Straw, trust me, is up to the job.

I doubt that we will ever, dear Impromptus-ites, find a foreign minister of a socialist government more congenial. Ever.

The same goes for his PM, actually.

I've gone on at some length, so I think I'll give it a rest, coming back with Clinton and other luminaries tomorrow. But let me give you a couple of short items, since you so patiently waded through a long one. (Did you?)

I ran into a guy who was small, but unbudging — and all business. (When I say "ran into," I mean literally.) Turned out he was one of Barak's bodyguards, and the Israeli bodyguards, though no linebackers — far from it — look like some tough hombres. No surprise there, huh?

Bill Daley — the ex-commerce secretary and chairman of the Gore-Lieberman campaign — is here, and the last I'd seen him was on a huge television screen, on Election Night 2000. I was in the plaza down in Austin, Texas, where Governor Bush was about to come out to give his victory speech (a gracious, uplifting one). But there appeared Billy Daley — son of Mayor Daley, one of the fabled fixers of 1960 — saying, "No, sorry, folks, the election ain't over."

Here, I'm happy to report, he seems much less menacing than he was, to me, that night, on that giant screen.

When I was in college — studying anthropology — Ruth Benedict was a big joke. Yes, she was. She had written her book The Chrysanthemum and the Sword — a study of Japan — at the request of the government (for we had been attacked by the Japanese and were fighting them). She had done so without benefit of visiting Japan, using only the resources of libraries in New York. In my circles, the book was thought to be a hoot: slipshod, ill informed, tainted because it was requested by the government, imperialist, etc. (You remember what it was like to be in college.)

I took the opportunity to ask a distinguished Japanese intellectual here about the book. He replied that it was a great one, still holding up, still widely read and studied in Japan, a masterpiece of national and cultural analysis.

Who's laughin' now, homies? Who? Who?

Okay, you've twisted my arm, I'll give you a little U.S. politics:

Bob Dole informed Time that he was "thinking about doing a real book . . . I probably won't run for anything again, so I can tell the truth now."

It was refreshing to hear a politician refer to a "real" book, effectively acknowledging that the books "written" by politicians — including Dole — aren't "real." (George W. Bush — who is almost always refreshing — once referred to a volume — a 2000 campaign book — as "the book they say I wrote.") And the telling-the-truth-part?

Refreshing, yes, but a little depressing, too — even if Senator Dole (for whom I interned, by the way, when I was in college) likes to be a jokester.

I've been talking in this column about Wesley Clark's breathtaking arrogance (among other things). He can't seem to hear himself talk — for instance, "It may be that the very kinds of skills that made me so successful as a military commentator — the ability to think in nuance and be clear — are not the kind of skills you need in a political leader."

The skills that made me so successful as a military commentator.

He also said of John Kerry that "it's one thing to be a hero as a junior officer" (as Kerry was in Vietnam), but something else altogether to have proved it "at the top."

As I've said before about Clark: I — any normal person, I would think — would be ashamed to think such things. But can you imagine saying them? In public? As a candidate? For president?

Finally, on Dean: Faced with some heckling, he got his crowd to start up a chorus of the National Anthem, drowning out the hecklers.

There was a neighborhood girl, when I was young, who, when she didn't want to hear something, stuck her fingers in her ears and sang. She was about ten, I'd imagine. Governor Dean? How old is he? And he wants to be president?

Never mind. Tomorrow, y'all.