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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (45095)	1/22/2004 1:00:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

ACF, it's true that the USA baby boomers have disproportionate global economic effects because they are perhaps 20% of the USA population and own the bulk of the money and assets having reached the richest time of life with greatest income. When they quit work, somebody else will take over their job or business. The economic activity they conducted will continue uninterrupted. The next people will do a better job because they'll be more intelligent [see Flynn Effect]. They'll cut back their spending because their children are leaving home in droves. But the spending on those children won't reduce because those now young adult children will be working and getting a lot more money than their parents spent on them and they'll be spending on a large scale, as you do when young, working flat out and buying all the stuff you want to run a life [house, car, fridge, washing machine, Globalstar phone, 1xEV-DO cyberphone, WiFi connections, clothes, baby carriage, baby clothes, notebook computer etc]. A billion Chinese are buying stuff and working flat out. The USA isn't the only economic game in town now. The USA share of Earth's GDP has shrunk even while economic immigration to the USA economic system has burgeoned. The USA has a smaller share of a greatly increased economic pie. 2010 will not see a peak. That will just be the beginning of spectacular growth as billions of people get some economic leverage and really start to make things happen. People who at the moment pedal slowly around Beijing with some trivial economic activity will get a real job. People searching through the trash to earn a living in Mumbai will upgrade to something more useful and rewarding. It's a continuing conceit of western baby-boomers that they are anointed by some supernatural deity as a superlative species. Nature will relegate them to the realm of degenerative geriatric demise as sure as night follows day. We certainly have had a good run compared with our ancestors, but it's better still for the next lot. We'll pop out of the python - a bulge of poop and the python's life will go on, bigger and better having digested our efforts for a few decades. We were just fodder. The python will not especially notice our passing, being busy looking for the next feed. It's a very big, strong python now, wrapping itself around the whole world, squeezing it, ready to scoff the whole thing in one big gulp. The western baby boomers were just some canapes before the main course. Don't look just at the USA baby boomer demographic bulge, which isn't actually all that big. Look at the total population of Earth. The demographics of that is what matters. India is still not in the global economy, though improving access by foreigners to India. China is rip-roaring and can do a lot more. Ignore Africa which remains an economic desolation zone and is unlikely to change any time soon. Moslem countries can probably be ignored too [from an economic point of view] as they prefer medieval philosophical foundations and are unlikely to change soon, despite the USA's fantasy that they can introduce a democratic domino theory to the world of Islamic Jihad. That still leaves a lot of people. Russia should gradually come right. China is well under way. North Korea will probably get going. Eastern Europe will continue development, albeit in the Eurosclerosis tradition of Big Government and strangulation by regulation. ElM's Brazil and the rest of Latin America seem in a permanent zone of going nowhere fast - fingerprinting Americans isn't going to do them any good. They need property rights, less thievery and corruption. Adulation of the Great Train Robbers and killing Peter Blake won't make their place a good one. Life is good. It's getting better. By 2010 It'll be really kicking into gear. The Biotelecosmictechdot.com revolution will be hitting It's stride. We baby boomers can sit back in our rocking chairs and enjoy the passing scene, amazed at the developments in our lifetimes. Mqurice