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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Niman who wrote (45101)	1/22/2004 10:37:32 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

"Is it a boom? Is it a bust? I hope it'll be a recovery" Unifying the Epidemiological and Evolutionary Dynamics of Pathogens abstract: sciencemag.org full: sciencemag.org ... 1. No effective immune response and no adaptation—This extreme includes HCV infection in immunocompromised hosts (30), influenza A virus immediately after an antigenic shift, and the initial phase of any infection in an immunologically naïve host. No effective adaptive immune response occurs, so there is little potential for viral mutants to be advantageous and the fastest replicating variant dominates the virus population. 2. Low immune pressure and low adaptation—A large viral population will accrue some beneficial mutations to a weak immune response, leading to an intermediate rate of adaptation. Possible examples are rapidly progressing chronic HCV and HIV (21, 31) and the asymptomatic simian immunodeficiency virus infections that occur in nonhuman primates (32). 3. Medium immune pressure and high adaptation—This is the point of fastest viral adaptation, as substantial immune selection coincides with appreciable virus replication. This position probably captures the dynamics of antigenic drift in influenza A virus and intra-host HIV infections (33), where the coevolutionary "arms race" between host and pathogen is most intense. 4. High immune pressure and low adaptation—Here, a stronger immune response greatly reduces viral population size, limiting the number of virus escape mutants. In HIV, this position may be represented by long-term nonprogressive hosts, who can exhibit a lower rate of amino acid change than in rapid progressors (31). 5. Overwhelming immune pressure and no adaptation—Infection will be rapidly cleared, so there is little chance of an adaptive response from the virus. Repeat exposure to measles and other morbilliviruses, which elicits solid lifetime immunity, exemplify this position (7). ... The retros have been with us for such a long time - check your DNA - that they want a bigger piece of action...