To: Sully- who wrote (25758 ) 1/23/2004 1:40:05 AM From: Nadine Carroll Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 793845 The US probably feels that it has the Iraqi problem in hand. It may also want to maintain the operational tempo in its wider campaign against the Middle Eastern dictatorships. An American deployment to the Bekaa would at the minimum open a new low-intensity warfare front which would resemble a cross between the campaign in Afghanistan and the recent anti-Saddam counterinsurgency in Iraq, which in the light of recent experience, the Pentagon feels it can safely assume. It has become a familiar operation of war with a known cost. But to the Syrians, it will be a mortal threat, to which they must respond. If they cannot bloody America and force a withdrawal, the spring of 2005 will see the Bekaa transformed from a Syrian stronghold to a dagger in the heart of Damascus An interesting thought, or, how to revoke the unofficial US recognition of the Syrian occupation of Lebanon in one easy move. BUT, any US move into the Bekaa is likely to be very bloody, because you force not just one, but three vicious players into a corner: Assad, Hizbullah and Fatah. None of these players can afford to give up Southern Lebanon unfought, and are all too likely to make common cause to launch the most vicious guerilla/suicide campaign they can muster. Hizbullah is the most fearsome of the three imo; they get $100 million a year from Iran. Do you think the Bush Administration has the stomach for a really bloody guerilla war that pits the US, Israel (sure to be dragged in), plus Lebanese auxillaries, against Syria, Hizbullah, and the PLO? Israel fought for years there and they lost. How is the US experience likely to be better? The terrorists have an ace in the hole; they need not care how many Lebanese civilians they kill; they know perfectly well that only the US and Israel will be blamed for all casualties. No, I think if US forces go into Lebanon it will be strictly smash-and-grab, for instance if they have intelligence about some of Saddam's weapons or some other HVT.