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Non-Tech : Deflation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JF Quinnelly who wrote (233)	1/22/2004 11:09:09 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 621

jfred, there has already been a significant USA house price implosion, but it was a sneaky one. In Y2K our fairly big house here in Epsom, Auckland was worth only a rinky dink little house in the back of Escondido. Now, after the US$ going from 39c to 70c to the Kiwi$ and some house price rising in Auckland, we could sell this house and buy a much better house in Escondido. Similarly, an American selling up in Escondido to move to Auckland in early 2000 could have bought themselves a swanky house and retired to live happily ever after on their share investments if they'd sold them and moved the money at 39c to the Kiwi$ to Auckland. Not now. They've been crunched. But they don't know it. The housing bust has happened already. Compared with Europe, they are not so crunched. The test of the housing market in the USA will come when interest rates eventually are moved back up. It's got to happen some time. Plenty of people will NOT be happy campers. Mqurice

To: JF Quinnelly who wrote (233)	1/23/2004 6:43:36 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 621

There may well be a bubble in the housing market - a house two blocks away that is smaller than ours just sold for twice what we paid for ours four years earlier. But - interest rates on houses are below 6%, and with the tax break, owning is cheaper than renting. What people worry about isn't the total debt level but the debt service level. As long as Joe Sixpack can make the monthly payments he doesn't seem to even notice how much he owes. As for me, I'm working on trying to do more bankruptcies. I actually feel anger at lenders that target my poor goony clients. They know marks when they see them.