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To: maceng2 who wrote (537)	1/23/2004 8:11:49 AM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1417

Analysts see Blair surviving stormy week Fri 23 January, 2004 12:10 reuters.co.uk [Note #1 "the experts" are often wrong on many things.. pb] By Toni Vorobyova and Ruth Pitchford LONDON (Reuters) - Tony Blair is likely to end next week bruised but not beaten after tackling party rebels and hearing a judge's verdict on why an Iraq weapons expert committed suicide, a Reuters poll predicts. A Reuters poll of 18 political analysts showed Blair would emerge without much permanent damage and all but two said Blair would lead the ruling Labour Party into the next general election, widely expected some time in 2005. Eight of the political analysts said judge Lord Hutton was unlikely to criticise Blair personally in his report on events leading up to the death of government scientist David Kelly, three said chances were even and four said direct criticism was likely. Three gave no answer. "I think it's going to damage him, but not fatally," said David Carlton at the University of Warwick. "Many prime ministers have been damaged and carried on for quite some time. It's rather unusual actually for a prime minister to be absolutely toppled in one fell swoop." Kelly killed himself after being exposed as the source for a BBC report which said Blair's team had "sexed up" the threat posed by then Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein to justify war. Most of the political analysts expected Defence Minister Geoff Hoon to resign in response to the report, but downplayed the damage that might do to Blair's government. Hutton is due to give his verdict on January 28. The day before, Blair needs to persuade rebels in his own Labour Party to approve plans to charge students more for higher education. In the case of student funding, most analysts thought Blair would narrowly avoid his first defeat on a major policy issue in parliament, where Labour has a substantial majority. But student funding reform could still cause him headaches as it goes through the House of Lords, parliament's second chamber, which can block legislation for up to a year. "I think... he will get the fees through on just a few votes, but if that's the case, the House of Lords will feel that they can have open season on it," said a politics professor at a British university, who declined to be named. "A year on something this unpopular is a long time." However, most political analysts expect Blair to hold on to power until mid-way through his third term as Prime Minister, when 14 of the analysts expect Chancellor Gordon Brown to succeed him.

To: maceng2 who wrote (537)	1/24/2004 12:18:36 AM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1417

Buoyant Britain's rates set to rise Charlotte Denny Saturday January 24, 2004 The Guardian [More speculation an rate hikes. Geez, do some folks live on an island. ..pb] guardian.co.uk A buoyant Christmas on Britain's high streets has helped boost economic growth to a three-year high, sealing the fate of the country's homeowners, who face a rise in borrowing costs within weeks. Dire predictions of a gloomy holiday season proved wide of the mark when official figures were released yesterday morning. The Office for National Statistics said retail sales volumes rose by 0.9% last month, the sharpest monthly increase since May 2002. The unexpected strength of sales contributed to a surge in output in the final three months of the year, the ONS said. Output rose by some 0.9% over the quarter, the highest increase since the first quarter of 2000. The acceleration in growth in the final quarter meant the economy expanded by a respectable 2.1% in 2003 as a whole, just a notch above the 2% growth pencilled in by the chancellor in last month's pre-budget report and up from 1.7% recorded in 2002. "Even sterling's renewed rise is unlikely to stand in the way of a rate rise after these data," said Ross Walker at the Royal Bank of Scotland. Threadneedle Street was the first major central bank to respond to the global upturn with higher rates when it pushed up borrowing costs by a quarter of a percentage point in November. City analysts are now pencilling in a repeat quarter-point increase when the Bank's monetary policy committee meets the week af ter next. The market expects borrowing costs to rise from the present level of 3.75% to 4.75% by the end of the year. The prospect of higher returns boosted sterling, which briefly jumped above $1.85, within a cent of last week's 11-year high, before easing back to $1.8325 in late trading. Ed Balls, the Treasury's chief economic adviser, dropped a clear hint last night that the government backed the case for dearer borrowing. "We have backed the MPC in the decisions it has taken to lock in stability as the economy strengthens,"he said in a speech at York University in which he dismissed concerns about the health of the public finances. But the shadow chancellor, Oliver Letwin, said the Treasury's coffers ought to be in better shape, considering the strength of the upturn in the economy. "This reinforces the need for the chancellor to explain why, when the economy is roughly in line with his own predictions, he is borrowing so much more than he forecast," he said. Mr Balls also made it clear that Britain would not reconsider its decision to join to the euro until Europe finished modernising its fiscal rulebook. "The future evolution of the stability and growth pact is of crucial importance," he said. Retailers slashed prices to persuade bargain-hunting shoppers to part with their cash, the ONS said. Industry made no contribution at all to growth over the quarter, with the pace being set by service sector firms.