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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (8555)	1/23/2004 7:57:06 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Bob, You missed one: stocks start splitting like there is no tomorrow. For all of the talk of cycles ending, this would be precedent setting if it happened, as every cycle sees stock splits.....and longer ones multiple splits. Re:We check our 3-4 hundred percent gains This is usually much higher. Brian

To: robert b furman who wrote (8555)	1/23/2004 8:21:29 AM
From: Berk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Personally, I would use some caution in here. The action doesn't appear to be conducive to higher prices in the near term. Specifically, good numbers posted by LRCX, SNDK and XLNX (up but way off from the high of the day) are met with bad price action in the stocks. It may be that we will just plateau here for awhile and then proceed on upward but right now good news is being sold.

To: robert b furman who wrote (8555)	1/23/2004 4:29:40 PM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 25522

Hello Mr Bull. :) One thing to pay attention to this past bear market is the real damage to investors was done in telecom and not as much in semiconductor capital equipment. I believe it is because folks know it won't die as a busines so it was not crushed to past bottom levels on price/sales. Your list: ==>Then Guru's extrapolate annual earnings. Jon YH and Carey have posted good estimates long ago. Both are better "guru's" than the paid shills. ==>Then Guru's issue buy orders. I think most top stocks are already buys... AMAT, KLAC, TER, Agilent, LRCX, etc. ==>Then price goes up fast as multiples expand. I had some LRCX bought at $8 and change and I sold some recently at $35. Do the math but that is a nice expansion. ==>The(n) your neighbor talks about retiring early. I live in Los Altos, CA... Most can sell their home and retire elsewhere on the equity if that is what they want to do. Most spend far too much so they keep working at high paying jobs. A few are rich (or do well enough) from cashing in options and DIVERSIFYING as the market went up. A few are retired teachers, etc. who are good savers and like the neighborhood. One of us doesn't go to an office to work... but I work darned hard managing my portfolio! -g- ==>We check our 3-4 hundred percent gains 3-4 times a day. CACS gained 3200% for me last year. I think it is now larger than my COMBINED AMAT, LRCX, UTEK and Intel holdings and I limited my investment to 3% of my portfolio. As I said, telecom saw a much bigger crushing in the last bear and the better opportunities were there. Still not bad the money we've made in this sector either. To add to what Cary has said. I looked at the last peak to basically have "my seed money out" at those levels. If we keep going higher, then it is mostly profits on profits. If we go lower on a crash or major correction, then I have funds to buy more and do it again. As to where we are in the cycle, I look at where we are in peak to bottom price. Stocks like UTEK and LRCX are up over 400% from their bottoms even after significant pullbacks the last few days... I don't see the same level of upside in these unless Jon YH is a pessimist. -g- BTW, CACS is still holding... probably last chance to buy... as my list of charts that have served me well for this short term guessing game say the odds are good now for a Monday turn. Your KVHI chart is a good indicator I tihnk... -g- stockcharts.com\|B\|C20 Have a good weekend! K