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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mannie who wrote (36043)	1/23/2004 1:50:57 PM
From: abuelita	Respond to of 89467

aptly put :(

To: Mannie who wrote (36043)	1/23/2004 2:41:32 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 89467

strange times in next few months, BIGTIME effects from US$ the USDollar is now at a support level of DXY = 85,86 this has served as support over a few years it will be easier to defend this level by central banks the Fed, the Bund (ECB), and BankofJapan will be hard at work of course, their output is from a printing press and thus doomed to catapult gold & energy even higher as the US$ bounces numerous times off the 85-86 level, we will see a big opportunity window for Europeans to build their positions in gold and energy stocks appreciation in nominal terms will not be so adversely affected to US$ slides then in spring (early or late, dunno) the US$ will teeter I expect all hell to break loose during prez primaries China bashing might come back into vogue, and even pay off but the loser will be the USDollar the bashing will make a dangerous transition as... CHINA IS BLAMED FOR RISING AMERICAN FOOD COSTS exports will pick up, but wont mean much more than a beer mug bailing water out of a large 16-man rowboat BEFORE ELECTION, WIDE TALK ABOUT EMBARGOS AGAINST CHINA AND TARIFFS WHICH WILL SQUARELY SHOOT THE USA IN THE FEET THE FOCUS WILL BE ON JOB EXPORT AND RISING FOOD COSTS OUR LEADERS ENJOY FOOD SALES TO ASIA, BUT WILL RETHINK by spring, consumers will see the impact of a weakening US$ in the form of higher Asian import prices, higher energy prices (home heating and commuter gasoline), and higher food prices (export driven) BY SUMMER, RISING COSTS WILL FINALLY HIT SPENDING PATTERNS then the US$ goes below 85 and heads dangerously toward 80 but not until the spring the trade gap might close to $36-37 billion monthly it was $38B in November, or whatever the most recent month was I cannot see the trade gap getting down to $35B we dont export enough goods, way too narrow a list consumer costs will be rising WE WILL GET MAJOR CROSS-CURRENTS FOR BONDS MishMan will be right for some time that weak economy will be the driving force behind falling bond yields but the trade gap will remain wide but the consumer prices will rise (even the absurd CPI) but the energy prices will be astounding (leading to labeled ENERGY CRISIS) BONDS WILL BECOME EXTREMELY VOLATILE BY SUMMER with yields pushed down on economic weakness, as consumer spending slows, refi's new round is puny, tax incentives fade in importance with yields pushed up by rising consumer costs, energy costs, and the perception of nascent price inflation back on our shores (largely imported) volatile bonds will be a major unclear signal FOR A VERY VERY DANGEROUS USDOLLAR DECLINE FOR RISING LONGTERM INTEREST RATES FINALLY (despite econ malaise) toward DXY=80 toward EURO=135 toward JYEN=100 toward CAN$=85 gonna be wild and wooly, but fun with gold & energy investors who will resemble Joe Kennedy et al in 1930 profiting from the Great Depression this is our modern-day Great Depression, but nobody seems to identify it as such / jim