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To: russwinter who wrote (6001)	1/23/2004 3:02:52 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

impossi ... er improbable.

To: russwinter who wrote (6001)	1/23/2004 3:14:12 PM
From: gregor_us	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ: IMO, if the Fed were to raise rates now--they would be abandoning the Deflation Battle--and in my view--signalling they are ready to accept a third Paradigm: Stagflation. Because I assume you agree there is no job growth. So I assume you believe the Fed is not currently targeting job data... I am absolutely, 100% convinced the Fed will not hike--nor will they even want anyone to think they might hike. But my conviction is a cause of concern, to me!

To: russwinter who wrote (6001)	1/23/2004 3:41:04 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Everybody (institutions, brokers, traders) is off side on this, mostly because they have a vested interest in "permanently lowering rates". You heard it here first. Everyone is long looking for rates to go lower? You are in fantasy land. Everyone is talking inflation not deflation, including the cat and dog next door. A sudden reversal from the FED is more fantasy land material IMO. The easy prediction goes exactly like this: 1)Right now the risks of disinflation and inflation are evenly balanced bla bla bla 2)blah bla bla JOBS bla bla bla 3)If and when we see the economy creating jobs at a fast enough pace to be self sustaining bla bla bla bla we will act to head of inflation in a timely manner 4) OIL blah blah blah geopolitical risks blah blah stabalization after we exit Iraq, blah bla blah, Iraq Democracy bla bla bla 5) GOLD, SILVER bla bla bla TERRORISM bla bla bla 6)blah blah bla PRODUCTIVITY bla bl bla bla JOBS bla bla bla 7)Given that we are more concerned about being wrong on the disinflation side bla bla bla we will keep our policy in place for a considerable period bla bla bla Match that with what is said next week. At any rate we find out on Tuesday/Wed from the FED, and then FEB 6-7 (I think) from the ECB. M

To: russwinter who wrote (6001)	1/24/2004 2:15:35 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 110194

russ, sorry you got it wrong in this quote >>>Europe's CBs are too responsible to be blackmailed<<< I would write that "they are to stupid and filled with self-importance". I never heard so many contradictory statements from a group of finance ministers and central bankers as I heard in the last 2 months and more last two weeks. Those guys are completely clueless and AG steals their lunch. In their stupidity and arrogance they play "by the rules" which are completely not adapted for a global economy and more so the emerging economic powers of India, China, former USSR and Brazil