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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (6057)	1/23/2004 7:45:52 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ it is not my "new economy thinking". If I was in charge, interest rates would be at 4% or so (just guessing) perhaps they would be higher. I would have been hiking in 1998 and 1999 for starters, I sure as H would not have had 13 rate cuts etc etc etc. That said. Quite literally we are where we are. We can not turn back the hands of time. Furthermore we absolutely and simply MUST put ourselves into the the head of Greenspan because neither your opinion matter nor does mine. You keep thinking your opinion matters. It does not matter 1 iota. Is Greenspan doing what he said he would do? Yes he is. Was there enormous amounts of money to be made on that? Yes there was. Is there more money to be made on it? IMO yes there is. At this juncture, forgetting about how stupid a situation we are in, you simply MUST understand Greenspan's perspective. My take is that you could care less and that is where you are wrong. Now, if it was up to me, right here, right now, I would NOT be hiking but I sure would be pulling back repos and coupon passes. As fragile this mess is, I personally believe that is all that would be required to slow thing down and more than considerably. Just tighten money supply a bit. Reign in FNM. etc. You OTOH want to go from 300% loosy goosy to 100% tightening in one fell swoop AND you don't give a damn 1 iota what problems that might cause. IMO that is as reckless as the policies that got us where we are. Once again, that is my opinion and once again my opinion is meaningless. Now for the sake of argument let's say that Greenspan comes to his "senses according to Russ". Is he going to blast there and tighten in one fell swoop or GIVEN WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT GREENSPAN (as opposed to what we know about Russ) will there be bias changes and letting the market know what is happening? IF he is to change at all, and personally I see absolutely ZERO indication that he is getting RR (Russ Religion), then you are in all honesty expecting way to much and the odds of a hike by June are preposterously low IMO. A far greater liklihood IMO (and we have already seen Canada blink) is that Europe blinks next. Mish