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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: re3 who wrote (6084)	1/24/2004 1:05:59 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 110194

misheldo-if i understand from following your postings, you are currently involved in different options/futures types plays on interest rates,etc, but NOT in gold/gold shares...let me ask about gold bullion itself...under what circumstances/price range, etc would you suggest putting a significant amount of $ or an "insurance" amount of money in physical gold/gold coins, etc and leaving it there for that proverbial "long run" (into the ice as you put it -ng-) ps. nobody pays any attention to me in real life when i tell them i think a basic 2 bedroom house here in a not so special neighbourhood can fall from $ 250k to $ 180k (or more)...and then when people talk condos, i wonder otoh if the "monthlies" (taxes, fixed maintenance fees) aren't going to run up and double in the next few years... -ng-: there's gonna be pain one way or 'nother... Retired, gold is tricky here IMO. We have multiple cross currents. Gold is rising because of the falling US$. The fact that it is doing nothing much per say in any other country is telling. Is gold ONLY an "anti-US$" play? That is question #1 that must be answered. Right now, it seems that's what the charts are saying. So what happens if the US$ bounces significantly? Will US miners get hurts and other miners bounce? Are we seeing this in the SA miner charts now? Perhaps we need to monitor the Canadian $ and the pound to determine a trend. Another thing to consider is what happens to the POG if the market senses deflation instead of inflation. If one really believes that interest rates are going to fall further in Canada, the #1 sure fire play is not gold or energy but the BAX (canadian interest rate futures) Hikes are still priced in. As for housing, I am not sure what to say. Clearly it is a mixed bag. The death of housing has been announced too many times already. Ultimately there will be a shakeout. If you really believe your house is extremely overvalued, then how about selling it and renting a house? I have a delima myself. I really do NOT think I could build my house again for what I paid for it. I do not want to sell it but personal reasons could dictate that. Now If I was positive this house was doom to dramatically fall in price it would be wise to get rid of it. But I have 20, 150-200 year old oak trees newly built 4 years ago in natural limestone and cedar with good views in every direction and great schools in a great neighborhood. I do not want to get rid of it if the hit is going to be 15%. There are other factors but I worry about this all the time. M