Edwards is surging. How the Press plays it depends on the final order of number two, three, and four. If Dean is third or fourth, he is out of it. He hasn't got a hope in hell in the South.
Edwards drew more than twice as much support among those citing Iowa as a factor than those who did not.
THE TIMES POLL
Kerry Showing Strength Across Board in N.H.
Among likely voters, the Massachusetts senator has a double-digit lead. His rival Dean is hurt as concern shifts from war to pocketbook issues.
By Ronald Brownstein
LA Times Staff Writer
January 24, 2004
MANCHESTER, N.H. — Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry, demonstrating the broad appeal that powered his victory in Iowa, leads by double digits among likely voters in Tuesday's pivotal New Hampshire primary, a new Times poll has found.
Kerry's three main rivals — former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, retired Gen. Wesley K. Clark and Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina — are locked in a tight struggle for second place that could shape the race's next stage.
The poll also found that the New Hampshire contest remains unsettled. One in 10 likely voters said they were undecided. Nearly two in five who have picked a candidate said they still could change their mind. That's the same share who described themselves as open to switching candidates in The Times poll shortly before Monday's Iowa caucuses, in which Kerry and Edwards surged to an unexpected one-two finish.
For the Democratic contenders, the stakes in New Hampshire are formidable: No candidate who finished lower than second in the state's primary has won either major party's presidential nomination since 1952.
In the poll, Kerry was backed by 32% of likely voters. He was followed by Dean (19%), Clark (17%), Edwards (14%) and Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (6%). Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio attracted 1%, while the Rev. Al Sharpton less than 1%. Along with the 10% who were undecided, another 1% said they preferred someone else.
One factor hurting Dean is that bread-and-butter concerns are eclipsing his signature issue: opposition to the war in Iraq. More of those polled picked health care (36%) than Iraq (20%) as the issue they most wanted to hear the candidates discuss. The economy (22%) also edged Iraq as a priority.
Those citing both health care and the economy as their top concerns gave Kerry a solid edge over his rivals. More strikingly, the Massachusetts senator led Dean, 33% to 22%, among those who said the Iraq war was the principal issue determining their vote. Clark was backed by 18% for whom the war was their overriding concern.
The Times Poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, surveyed 1,176 likely Democratic primary voters from Jan. 20 through 23; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.
It included 260 interviews Friday — the day after the last candidate debate before the primary — and found the forum had relatively little effect on voter attitudes. Although most respondents said they watched the debate, only 9% said it changed their preference — and they scattered among the candidates about evenly.
The Iowa contest appears to have had a stronger effect: 20% of the likely New Hampshire voters said the caucus results influenced their decision, while 79% said they did not.
Kerry ran slightly better among those who said Iowa influenced their decision than those who did not; Edwards drew more than twice as much support among those citing Iowa as a factor than those who did not.
As in surveys of Iowa caucusgoers, Kerry demonstrated an extraordinary reach across the party in The Times Poll. Kerry led among men and women; Democrats and independents (who are allowed to vote in the primary); voters who earn less than $40,000 a year and those who earn more; liberals and moderates (he was tied with Edwards among the small share who considered themselves conservatives) and voters who lived in cities, suburbs and small towns.
Kerry dominated the field among voters without a college education — he was backed by 39% of them, compared with 16% for Clark and 13% for Dean. Kerry ran almost evenly with Dean among the college-educated voters, who have been the core of the former governor's constituency. Kerry was backed by 27% of college-educated poll respondents, compared with 25% for Dean and 19% for Clark.
In surveys through late last year, Dean held large leads over Kerry among voters with college educations who expected to cast ballots in the New Hampshire primary. These voters long have been attracted to candidates, such as Dean, who portray themselves as reformers and political outsiders — a lineage that traces from Eugene McCarthy in 1968 to Gary Hart in 1984 and Bill Bradley in 2000.
For Kerry, who previous surveys found was judged stiff or aloof by many voters, experience and credibility on national security emerged as his strongest assets in The Times Poll. Asked to identify one reason why they supported Kerry, 29% cited experience, far more than picked any other attribute. Another 9% cited his military background.
"In the end, looking over all the candidates to see which I thought would make the best president of the United States, that's when I came to Sen. Kerry," said Robert Steenson of Canterbury, the chief operating officer of a service company. "With his [military] service and his record, he seemed the most qualified."
Kerry also led comfortably when voters were asked, regardless of which candidate they supported, which of the contenders they believed "is most qualified to serve as commander in chief."
Kerry was picked by 37% while Clark, who has built his campaign around his military and foreign policy experience, was tabbed by 25%. Just 11% selected Dean and only 6% named Edwards.
For Dean, the poll documents an accelerating decline in New Hampshire since late last year, when polls often showed him attracting 40% of the vote or more.
Part of Dean's problem is that voters appear less angry at the Democratic candidates who supported President Bush on the war.
Three-fifths of likely primary voters said they would prefer a Democratic nominee who opposed the war, but nearly three-fourths — almost the same percentage as in Iowa — said they are willing to vote for a candidate who doesn't share that view.
Underscoring that attitude, Kerry led Dean, 30% to 25%, among those who say they prefer a nominee who opposed the war.
Dean also appears to have been hurt by doubts about his temperament and qualifications for the presidency, an issue highlighted by his manic concession speech in Iowa. One telling contrast: While 81% of Kerry voters consider him most qualified to serve as commander in chief and 75% of Clark supporters believe he's the most prepared, just 50% of Dean's backers gave him that nod.
Dean's decline is measured in voters like Yvonne Howard, a first-grade teacher in Warner, N.H. who responded to The Times poll. For weeks, Howard had displayed a campaign sign for Dean in her yard. "I even gave him money," she said, "although I didn't tell my husband."
But Dean's concession speech caused Howard to pull the sign from her lawn — and her support from the former frontrunner. "I was solidly for Dean until last Monday night," she said. "But I was embarrassed…. I thought when he becomes president he is going to hit tougher situations than coming in third in the Iowa [caucuses]. If he's going to fly off the handle, I'm not sure that he's the man who would best handle the job."
Despite such defections, the survey offered hints that Dean's decline may have bottomed out. He continued to maintain substantial support among groups that keyed his rise. He ran almost evenly with Kerry among younger voters, union households and liberal Democrats, as well as the college graduates.
When voters were asked, regardless of who they are supporting, which candidate would "substantially change the way things are done in Washington," Dean drew 24%, compared with 21% for Kerry, 14% for Clark and 11% for Edwards.
And the poll found Dean's supporters are more solidly committed to him than those now backing others. Among those backing him, 73% said they are certain to vote for him — compared with 60% for Kerry, 57% for Clark and 44% for Edwards. Asked why they back Dean, his supporters primarily cited his stands on issues: 29% mentioned health care and 22% his opposition to the war in Iraq.
Dean's solid supporters include poll respondents Stanley Orzechowski, a retired textile executive who lives in Manchester. Orzechowski said he finds Dean bracing and direct, especially in comparison with Kerry. "I liked the way Dean talked, plain, clear; it impressed me," said Orzechowski. "Something just didn't gel for me about Kerry."
Like Kerry, Clark appears to be attracting voters based more on his qualifications than his agenda: asked why they support him, 16% cited his leadership qualities, 15% his military background and 14% his experience. Edwards, judging by the 56% of his supporters who say they could still change their mind, remains something of a blank slate for many voters here. But he's rising on the radar screen; he had been attracting only single-digit support in New Hampshire before the Iowa results.
Edwards' supporters cite his charisma and the sense that he's a straight shooter as their principal reasons for backing him, and the poll shows those sentiments have enabled him to gain a foothold across the party.
Howard, the first-grade schoolteacher, is torn between Kerry's experience and Edwards' freshness. She's surprised to find those two as her final contenders because she strongly opposed the war in Iraq — the sentiment that initially led her to Dean.
"I was very much antiwar because I lived through Vietnam," she said. "But I believe Kerry's line that he didn't know it would entail this much, that he didn't know it would be a blank check. And I believe the same with Edwards. I think they were misled too, which allows me to support them."
Copyright 2004 Los Angeles Times |
