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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (18536)	1/24/2004 12:17:41 PM
From: Steve168	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78968

Spekulatius, my model is purely technical (based on trading volume and prices). It does not reflect any fundamentals. It is thus considered unbiased by my emotion or judgement. However, I use this model plus other analysis methods to invest. Others including fundamental analysis, sentiment analysis, industry insight, etc. I am trying to be a value investor and also time the market in mid or long term. Most text books and academics say this is impossible, but I still like to try it to improve the boring "value investing" approach ;-) So far it is doing extremely well, maybe I am just lucky but let's see if I can pull off a "no drawdown" in this correction.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (18536)	1/24/2004 2:05:31 PM
From: jeffbas	Respond to of 78968

Spek, the alternative investment interest rate environment has changed a lot since 2000. I think it is reasonable, normal and indicative of nothing to find few good dividend stocks. A major mistake I have made in the last year is to think a given stock's P/E is high at some point in time, only to find that sequential quarter earnings are growing by something like 25%, because of the combination of higher sales, better pricing and leverage on the bottom line. RADN is an example, where EPS went from 10 cents in Q3 to 15 cents in Q4 on a 4% sales increase over the prior quarter. The annualized quarter P/E suddenly went from 20 at $8 to 13. My favorite FARO, for Q1 2004, will come close to 20 cents versus 4 cents the year before on a 50% sales increase. Most commentators on tech stocks don't have a clue on what is happening for many companies, the Microsofts excluded.