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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tradelite who wrote (16259)	1/24/2004 5:50:33 PM
From: GraceZ	Respond to of 306849

Now that the economy is showing signs of new life, the bears seem to be more actively proclaiming the glass is "completely empty"----or is this just my imagination in an election year? It is because if they don't stand steadfast to their prejudice they look rather foolish having stood by and watching such a strong market advance from the sidelines. This is why it never pays to buy either the bull or bear case. It makes you inflexible to go with the trend. This is the inverse of the problem that many who had bought the wildly bullish expectation for the "new economy" had and why they didn't simply sell and hold cash when it became clear that the market was going to correct to the downside. They'd bought the supporting rhetoric for the move to the upside so they were frozen by their own beliefs. They'd have to admit they were wrong, that trees can't grow to the sky as they'd asserted earlier. The market does not care if you believe one way or the other. It moves randomly in an attempt to find the long term trend that approaches the real value of the underlying companies. That random fluctuation away from the trend can last far longer and go much further than your own personal stash of money can. You can't afford to be stubborn and inflexible, trees that don't bend break. They worst thing you can do is allow a bear market to turn you into a permabear or have a bull market turn you into a permabull. I'm optimistic but wary. The things that get me the most bearish are higher taxes and government intervention into free markets. When those two things are on the wane I feel pretty good about putting my hard earned money into investments, both paper and the real ones like capital improvements for my company.