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Technology Stocks : Ring the Bell - When to sell semiconductors? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (7)	1/24/2004 7:01:33 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 34

Hi Sarmad, I do not recall an unusual number of IPO's for the period you cite, '98-'99. FWIW, there are still a good number of equipment companies which are privately held, mostly smaller names of course. But that is yet another thing to watch for in the coming year or two. If many come public at once, it may be time to Sell. Brian

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (7)	1/26/2004 10:26:45 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 34

HI sARMAD, tHIS SECTOR has hge barriers to entry of all kinds. I can only refer to very small niche semiconductor testhandlers.I suspect that the front end equipment makers are even more so. Cohu has been around since 1941 - they paid cash forDelta Design in the eaely 80's.Delta's original expertise was building heating chambers that equally warmed chips up regardless of where they were in a heating chamber-this was necessary because computers ot hot and then chips failed- so a test was created to duplicate the real world. Cohu succeeded at this and had other cash cows that enabled them to buy Daymarc a competing gravity feed testhandler that had come to wealth building testhandler for Micron. Daymarc wanted to go public in a bad IPO time AND WAS INTRO'D TO COHU FOR A PURCHASE. At about the sametime Aseco wentpublic and attempted to compete with Cohu on a pick and place equipment and lost all of their IPO money on R&D.They never sold their first design-they werepurchased by MCTI for a pittance. MCTI is now under 2.50 and the other competitor Aetrium is all but under water as well. This is a game for SUPER CAPITALIZED FIRMS -the cycles kill all undercapitalized players in the down time. A company must not only be bulletproof to withstand the down cycles - but they must be debt free and willing to invest past retaied earnings into R&D to gin market share in the future. They are like the investorsof the stock - they reinvest in the face of fear.This understanding is essential.It requires faith and being good and capitalized. Few understand this unless they have walked the walk for 10-15 years. I hope thaT HELPS IT MAY WELL MAKE YOU RICH!! bOB pARDON THE TERRIBLE SPELLING AT A FRIENDS HOUSEON A SLOW AND DIFFERENT SYSTEM.gg