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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (6130)	1/25/2004 9:45:10 AM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 110194

>>IF greenspan produces jobs and wage inflation<< only in China, maybe some other parts of Asia, and then for how long??

To: mishedlo who wrote (6130)	1/25/2004 1:18:51 PM
From: philv	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Is inflation possible without jobs and wage increases? Could not prices rise in spite? Many would argue that we are seeing that right now. Greenspan may well get his inflation, but not the jobs. Just higher and higher prices as he is finally forced to raise rates to reign in the (up to now unacknowledged) huge credit bubble. Australia, England and even China have expressed concern re: real estate bubble. And the great US bubbles will continue to grow in this artificially low interest rate environment. Far better to raise rates moderately soon to slow down the housing/credit/bond bubble than to risk a large increase later and cause a swift and complete collapse is it not? If the US decreases interest rates, you clearly win. If they don't raise before the US election, my hat is off to you. As far as the ECB is concerned, it is possible that they won't move to cut rates, and could be engaged in talking down the Euro right now. It is highly possible that Greenspan wants a lower relative dollar. We aren't privy to their private discussions. The US still requires daily ongoing financing from the ROW, mainly S.E. Asia. How long will they be willing to lose money propping up the dollar at these low interest rates? That seems to me to be the key. Amazing how the debtor can determine the rates that the creditor must accept. Good deal if you can get it.