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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (6135)	1/25/2004 9:37:24 AM
From: glenn_a	Respond to of 110194

Hi Fillmore. The timing is hard to say, but I concur with your analysis. Yet another section of the Coxe call I found classic: "Now, I don’t know when we’re going to have serious trouble in this, but I find it hard to believe that we’re going to get through this year without something dramatic happening. What I find is a remarkable consensus amongst the strategists, they talk in terms of 'yes, interest rates are going to go up, but they talk in terms of like ¾ of a point.' ... Oh no, no, no ... if these kinds of things start to unravel, we’re looking at much, much bigger jumps than that. Because what we don’t have is anybody to jump in and support them. Yeah, the Fed theoretically could buy up the curve, and they’ve done that occasionally in the past, but that would be only in a true crisis environment, and you wouldn’t want to have big exposure to US$-denominated bonds in a crisis environment." Regards, Glenn