Louis, sorry for the lag in answering you.
>>>>>>one on crude oil, one on the Euro, waiting for better prices also.
Third one I missed, is the appreciation of the base metal equities (which started in April IMHO).<<<<<
I have missed more bubbles than you can shake a stick at... Just to show you, I never even knew about the nano bubble... oh well... that`s the way it is and that`s the way it`s probably going to stay. What it boils down to I believe, is to have a personal style and stick to it, as long as it works reasonably well. It ain`t an easy game, and just doing well is already a fabulous start (I know we all hope to do incredibly well all the time ...) . My approach is to have some conviction. What I mean by that is that I try to formulate general guidelines for my trading and I apply those guidelines to a belief about the market. In other words, the guidelines are my trading rules, and the belief is my benchmark, my reference. If things don`t match the belief, then I go back to a reasonable cash position and watch. So far, it works, despite the ups and downs. What a bull market will do for your IQ...although I must say I would have loved to trade more in certain instances in the last two months. The belief is that PMs are hard core value... doesn`t have to sound dirty. The money supply to bid them up is certainly there if inflation succeeds as per the CBs manifesto and if we get deflation, then the attraction to PMs is in relation to everything else....
At this point in time though, and aligning myself with much brighter minds (such as Richard Russell) my belief is that world profligate governments ( which includes pretty much all of them, at least if they can afford to ...) are not going to be able to keep juggling all the balls forever. They are going to drop one or more at one point, and then my position will be , well , golden. A sub set of the belief construct is that gold, and possibly PGMs and Silver, are going to maintain or appreciate in endearment relative to base metals.
>>>>Deflation? Am more in that camp too. Basically a time of overproduction with no money to buy the goods.<<<
Yes , that too! Overproduction! Mark Faber is keen on that angle as well.
I have a lot less religion about energy, I just feel a lot less knowledgeable there, both in fundamentals and technicals, but my guess is that if the USA, which consumes 25% of hydrocarbons in the world, has a major slow down, I doubt the rest of the economic web plugged into it can pick up the slack in demand immediately, the way an uninterruptable power supply for computers does when face with a black out. There is going to be an interval where things get hairy and offer the waiting and willing a break to get in (talking about energy here) . That will be the time to build positions if one is in shape to do so . That is another of my sub set. I have a small percentage of my portfolio in energy (obviously a mistake looking at the performance of the sector since Nov 2003, but only a mistake in terms of missed opportunity, not of loss) but I am watching the energy complex with interest... [edit: rereading myself here I realize this could be a blunder as oil is a political beast as well as a depleting asset... BWDIK]
>>>>>Dunno what is out favor now, and about to move up.<<<<<
I agree with you and try to do the same under normal emotional stress and mood, with regards to looking for what is out of favor. Sometimes though, it becomes too tempting to play the momentum game in what is hot ...
>>>>>Still in silver equities as silver is both a proxy for "cheaper gold" and an industrial metal (China now uses silver plated Cu wires for the
power lines). So, silver also is a China play <ggg>.
<<<<<<
I don`t have as much silver as I would want to have , but did very well in 2001 and 2002 with what I had then, since sold (PAAS, Corner Bay and MFL, HL in part) . Looking to increase positions there.
This is a long rambling post and I am having trouble rereading myself even, so consider this message more of a personal journal... By the way , I have had this project (experiment rather) about charting myself against the performance of my PF and my trades. I am really going to do it, damn. Any idea about what I should include ? Say my body temperature, a short daily mood indicator (done through answering a few standard questions and rating them, similar to Richard Russell`s PTI...) This is been in my head for years, just have never done it. Thought about it after reading Dr Alexander ______ and "Psychology of trading".
One last additions to my ramblings. The entire economic system of a country as large as the USA, especially since it is now so inter related with other major economies is becoming too complex for one person to understand in many ways. Too many data points and too many traps set up in the way that often cause and effect relationships have many degrees in their path and it becomes impossible to follow them. Just like the game of "go" (othello in a more simple form, which has too many probabilities ) . So here it helps to use common sense examples: I know the USA is not a "stock company" or a " household" but if it were, what would be the most likely result of the current excesses? Bankruptcy? Divorce? Alimony? Foster care? Most people survive these hard times but they are never pleasant.
Over and Out
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