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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rascal who wrote (123706)	1/26/2004 2:23:29 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Rascal; Re: "I didn't want to invest in gold, I just wanted to find the guy who made the right calls on gold and interest rates and the dollar these last 3 years. I want to ask him what he thinks now." Funny you should ask. Bilow, August 3, 2000 I think that this company [ASL] is going to do fine. #reply-14160144 Bilow, July 13, 2001 Hi nutxspirit; I'm holding [ASL], gonna hold for a couple more years, what's there to post? Also picked up some cheap HL some time ago. #reply-16073427 Chart for ASL (an African gold company): finance.yahoo.com Chart for HL (an American silver / gold company): finance.yahoo.com I don't think that gold has topped out for the following reasons, maybe two of which have to do with our stupid foreign policies (not just Bush, our foreign policy errors are decades long): (a) High US Government budget deficits. (b) High US foreign trade deficits. (c) Federal Reserve desperately printing money. (d) Economic situation forces (a)-(c) to continue. (e) World pissed off with US, so dollar drops. I'd suggest holding until medium term interest rates in the US reach the double digit levels. This won't happen for years. The right time to sell gold is when the public is completely convinced that stocks are useless, as far as saving money for your retirement, that inflation is going to eat up all your cash and savings deposits, and that everyone *must* invest a healthy percentage of their assets in gold. At that time, stocks will again be the same incredible bargain that they were in 1982 (in terms of P/E or P/S or other fundamental ratios). The metal is a good store of value, but more profits can be made by picking and choosing among the mining companies, as the above stock charts aptly demonstrate. -- Carl

To: Rascal who wrote (123706)	1/26/2004 3:56:09 AM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

But when will Greenspan realize he has no tools. they will keep inventing or manipulating the marktes... more importantly is when will these tools cease to work. I just wanted to find the guy who made the right calls on gold and interest rates and the dollar these last 3 years. I want to ask him what he thinks now. i do not know who that person is... here is a few gold items: kitco.com kitco.com kitco.com and an interesting piece here... kitco.com financialinsights.org ______________________________________________ Until recently, our major trading partners have been satisfied to accumulate our dollars in exchange for the valuable goods and services that they sold to our nation. Many of the dollar credits that leave the U.S. are returned by their foreign holders and are invested in U.S. Treasuries. This benefitted non-U.S. dollar holders during the 1995-2001 period, because the dollar increased in value and their dollar denominated Treasuries not only paid interest but became worth more in their native currencies. Now, this condition has changed. Since 2001, the steep decline in the U.S. dollar compared with the currencies of our major trading partners is now hurting them. Their dollar holdings have been steadily losing value against their own monetary units. This places foreign dollar owners in a dilemma! Should they continue to maintain or increase their dollar positions while they sustain further exchange losses, or should they use at least some dollars to acquire other assets that might maintain their value? What are their best options, and what are they likely to do? First, they can use their U.S. dollar hoards to acquire their own currencies. However, if they take this direction they will further weaken the dollar against their own monetary units. This in turn will damage them as it will generate additional losses to the dollars that they continue to hold. Further, it will cause their monetary units to continue to appreciate. This will make their products more expensive in dollar terms and may price their goods and services out of the market and injure their already weakened economies. Second, they can acquire gold or other strong currencies such as the Euro. This is certainly already occurring and is an important reason for both the Euro’s and gold’s strength and their secular Bull Markets. Finally, they can begin to purchase dollar denominated assets. The latter option is not a new one. If you will recall, during the latter half of the1980's, a wave of foreign purchases occurred of American real estate and businesses as well as irreplaceable works of art and other items that ultimately found their homes across one of the great oceans. This “buying of America” was led by the Japanese, and at times a certain amount of U.S. outrage occurred as asset after asset was being gobbled up by our foreign trading partners. During this era, landmarks such as Rockefeller Center, Pebble Beach as well as Universal Pictures were acquired by the Japanese. Further, large U.S. factory complexes were purchased by foreign entities that allowed them to assemble and manufacture items such as automobiles for sale to the American market. I believe that the dollar’s secular Bear Market is destined to foster a similar period of foreign demand for U.S. enterprises, projects, properties and possibly national treasures. As the U.S. monetary unit’s decline extends it will force an increasing number of U.S. dollar holders to reevaluate the desirability of holding a steadily depreciating currency. It is likely that as this decade unfolds a trickle of foreign purchasers of U.S. assets will swell into a mad rush. This, as foreigners strive to exchange their steadily depreciating dollars for both tangibles such as gold, silver, various commodities, as well as dollar denominated items that possess intrinsic or eternal value. In the end, the U.S. may find various foreign entities owning some or many of our most valuable and treasured assets.